Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba

OpenOutcomes2as of

Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 34% across 2 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

June 30Newswire99%match17¢-100%
57% chance Miguel Díaz-Canel removed from office this year. • •
June 30CNBC98%match36¢-100%
Cuba says international airlines can no longer refuel there as Trump turns up the pressure
June 30Reuters98%match38¢-100%
Cuba to protect essential services as US moves to cut off oil supply
June 30Polymarket99%match22¢-100%
[Replying to @KobeissiLetter] @KobeissiLetter 63% chance Cuba's president is removed this year. > PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Cuba will be failing pretty soon."

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the President of Cuba for any period of time between November 18, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Miguel Díaz-Canel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Cuba, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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