MI-07 House Election Winner
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Market pricing makes William Lawrence (D) the favorite at 63% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
New - Will Lawrence, Dems candidate in MI07, has finally been added to the DCCC’s coveted red-to-blue list, six weeks after his primary win • • Lawrence had ticked off CBC with past comments and DCCC was waiting until they could reconcile, as reported here • •
NEW: The DCCC adds Will Lawrence, the Democratic nominee in #MI07, to its "Red to Blue" program along w/ Bill Hill in #AKAL and Mitchell Berman in #WI03 • • Lawrence, a progressive, beat two more moderate primary rivals and has faced some anger from the Congressional Black Caucus
News: DCCC is adding William Lawrence, the leftist candidate in #MI07, to its Red to Blue program. • • DCCC also adding Mitchell Berman in #WI01 and Bill Hill in #AKAL to Red to Blue
In Michigan's 7th congressional district, Democrat Will Lawrence is the favorite. • • The DDHQ Forecast gives Lawrence a 66% probability of winning, with incumbent Tom Barrett at a 34% probability. • • This is one of the key Democratic targets and will play a key role in House control.
In Michigan's 7th congressional district, Democrat Will Lawrence is the favorite. • • The DDHQ Forecast gives Lawrence a 66% probability of winning, with incumbent Tom Barrett at a 34% probability. • • This is one of the key Democratic targets and will play a key role in House control.
Decision Desk HQ MI-07 Forecast (9/10): • • Probabilities: • Lawrence: 66% • Barrett: 34% • • Projected Vote Share: • Lawrence: 52% • Barrett: 48% • • Explore this race on Votes:
Live: The Michigan Democratic party said that William Lawrence is a “clear choice” for the state’s seventh congressional district – a battleground seat that swun
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).