Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?

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Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?100%

What moved the odds?

2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

AfDwelt.de95%match87¢+15%
Poll for Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania: AfD only three points ahead of SPD – Schwesig is gaining ground
AfDwelt.de96%match89¢+12%
Forsa poll: AfD remains strongest party in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, but SPD is gaining ground.

What is this event about?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election. This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election. This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and SPD receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party. Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).