Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary Winner

OpenOutcomes20as of

Market pricing makes Ed Markey the favorite at 99% across 20 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

20 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Ed MarkeyCNN Reporter96%match96¢+3%
#MASEN Democratic primary: In UNH poll, Ed Markey leads Seth Moulton 63-28 after it was 41-35 in June
Seth MoultonCNN Reporter96%match96¢+3%
#MASEN Democratic primary: In UNH poll, Ed Markey leads Seth Moulton 63-28 after it was 41-35 in June
Ed MarkeyCNN Reporter96%match95¢+4%
Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Ayanna Pressley will hold a rally with Ed Markey on Saturday in Dorchester, MA, three days before his primary against Seth Moulton, per Markey’s campaign #MASEN
Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Ayanna Pressley will hold a rally with Ed Markey on Saturday in Dorchester, MA, three days before his primary against Seth Moulton, per Markey’s campaign #MASEN
Ed MarkeyAxios Reporter94%match10¢-90%
The Boston Globe endorses primary challenger Seth Moulton over longtime incumbent Ed Markey. • • The race is interesting because it’s a test of how much of the Dem primary energy is anti-establishment vs. left-wing/DSA. • •
Seth MoultonAxios Reporter95%match9¢-89%
The Boston Globe endorses primary challenger Seth Moulton over longtime incumbent Ed Markey. • • The race is interesting because it’s a test of how much of the Dem primary energy is anti-establishment vs. left-wing/DSA. • •
Ed MarkeyAxios Reporter92%match10¢-90%
The Boston Globe is endorsing Rep. Seth Moulton over incumbent Sen. Ed Markey in #MASen:
Seth MoultonAxios Reporter95%match7¢-86%
The Boston Globe is endorsing Rep. Seth Moulton over incumbent Sen. Ed Markey in #MASen:
Ed MarkeyCNN Reporter97%match92¢+8%
New Suffolk/Boston Globe poll of #MASEN Democratic primary: • • Ed Markey (i) 52 • Seth Moulton 38 • Undecided 9 • • (Aug. 13-16; 500 LVs; +/-4.4%) • •
Seth MoultonCNN Reporter98%match93¢+6%
New Suffolk/Boston Globe poll of #MASEN Democratic primary: • • Ed Markey (i) 52 • Seth Moulton 38 • Undecided 9 • • (Aug. 13-16; 500 LVs; +/-4.4%) • •
Ed MarkeySemafor Reporter92%match85¢+16%
Sen. Ed Markey signed the letter to DNC asking for super PACs to stay out of Democratic primaries but, funny enough, there's a super PAC supporting him that just launched a new six-figure ad hitting his primary opponent Rep. Seth Moulton for accruing wealth while in Congress • • • • (Commonwealth Together PAC does disclose its donors)
Ed MarkeyAxios Reporter93%match19¢-95%
Inbox: New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill endorses Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton — her former House colleague — in his primary challenge against Sen. Ed Markey
Seth MoultonAxios Reporter95%match18¢-94%
Inbox: New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill endorses Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton — her former House colleague — in his primary challenge against Sen. Ed Markey
Ed MarkeyCNN Reporter96%match66¢+50%
Ed Markey, facing a primary challenge from Seth Moulton, puts his endorsers front and center in his first TV ad: Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Ayanna Pressley #MASEN
Ed MarkeyCNN Reporter95%match34¢-97%
#MASEN Democratic primary: Seth Moulton outraised Ed Markey in the second quarter, $1.4 million to $1 million, per the latest FEC filings. • • Moulton has $2.6M cash on hand; Markey has $2.2 million.
Seth MoultonCNN Reporter97%match34¢-97%
#MASEN Democratic primary: Seth Moulton outraised Ed Markey in the second quarter, $1.4 million to $1 million, per the latest FEC filings. • • Moulton has $2.6M cash on hand; Markey has $2.2 million.
Seth Moultonfoxnews.com99%match28¢-96%
Seth Moulton closing gap on progressive Democrat Ed Markey in Massachusetts Senate primary
Seth MoultonAxios Reporter99%match29¢-97%
Emerson poll has Markey up only 5 over Seth Moulton. • • The 79-year-old Markey is running for re-election. • Primary is in September. •

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Massachusetts. If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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