Macron out
Open5as of
Market pricing makes December 31, 2026 the favorite at 4% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Emmanuel Macron has admitted the possibility of returning to the presidency after stepping down in 2026. "Let's be clear: according to our Constitution, a citizen has the right to two consecutive terms. My term will end in May next year, and the French people will elect someone else But I'm not ruling anything out. Returning is quite unusual, but we'll see," Macron said in an interview with the American magazine Variety. He added that "life is full of ingenuity—sometimes even more than cinema." RBK Channel on "Max"
Macron is gone
A fragmented parliament, and personal rivalry among those hoping to succeed the president in 2027, will make for a chaotic 2026 in France. Three scenarios loom
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France for any length of time between January 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Macron departs from office before the expiry date, the market should resolve immediately.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.