Lula or Bolsonaro favored on...?
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This hub tracks 2 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Prediction Markets : Polymarket Beat Traditional Polls in the Brazilian Election. • Senator Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the opening round of Brazil’s 2026 presidential election, an ordering that several late national polls had not projected and that the prediction market Polymarket had priced for weeks. The split between survey... Read More
Brazilian stocks soar as Bolsonaro emerges as election favorite
Brazil: Right-wing Flavio leads in presidential election; heads to runoff against Lula.
Flávio Bolsonaro Surges Past Lula, Setting Up a Bitter Brazil Election Runoff • •
Brazilian stocks jump as Bolsonaro now seen as heavy favorite to win presidency
Brazilian stocks jump as Bolsonaro now seen as heavy favorite to win presidency
[UPDATE] Brazil’s markets surge as investors bet on Bolsonaro win (first reported at 2026-10-05T13:17:13Z)
Brazil Interest Rate Futures Sharply Down in Early Trading After Bolsonaro Beats Expectations in Presidential Vote
Lula Seen with 47% of Votes vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 46% in Potential Brazil Election Runoff - Datafolha Poll
Lula’s lead over Bolsonaro narrows ahead of Brazil vote, CNT/MDA poll shows
Lula Seen with 43.1%, Flavio Bolsonaro 38.0% in First Round of Brazil’s Presidential Election - Cnt/Mda Poll
Lula Seen with 47.3% of Vote vs Flavio Bolsonaro’s 43.1% in Potential Brazil Election Runoff - Cnt/Mda Poll
What is this event about?
Each market in this event will resolve to "Lula" if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value is higher than Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on that market's listed date.
Each market in this event will resolve to "Bolsonaro" if Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds value is higher than Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's hourly odds value in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on that market's listed date.
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's and Flávio Bolsonaro's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", this market will resolve 50-50.
An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent).
If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com has not published anything for the specified window for an option (neither an hourly odds value nor "NO_PRINT"), this market will remain open until a value or "NO_PRINT" for that window is published, and may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after that market's listed date for that purpose. If nothing has been published for the specified window by that time, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. If PredictionMarketOdds.com permanently ceases publishing hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva or Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing before the specified window, including by removing either option from the listing, this market will resolve based on the hourly odds values published up to that point.
If no hourly odds value is published for either of the options between market creation and the end of the specified window, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the underlying market is officially decided before the listed date and time, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option which resolves "Yes". If the winning outcome is neither listed option, this market will resolve 50-50.
If a published hourly odds value is clearly erroneous as a result of a technical or operational error, this market may remain open for up to an additional 48 hours after that value is first published to allow for a correction. A corrected value will be used in place of the original. If no correction is published within that period, the original value will stand, and revisions published after that period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is PredictionMarketOdds.com, specifically the hourly odds values for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro in the "Brazil Presidential Election 2026" listing at https://predictionmarketodds.com/brazil-president-2026.html and on each option's detail page, reached by clicking the option's name in the listing. Prices shown on any individual prediction market will not be considered.