Lima Mayoral Election Winner

OpenOutcomes49as of

Market pricing makes Rafael López Aliaga the favorite at 62% across 49 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Rafael López Aliaga62%
Person B50%
Person C50%
Person D50%
Person E50%
Person F50%
Person G50%
Person H50%
Person I50%
Person J50%
Person K50%
Person L50%
Person M50%
Person N50%
Person O50%
Person P50%
Person Q50%
Person R50%
Person S50%
Person T50%
Person U50%
Daniel Belizario Urresti Elera5%
Carlos Alberto Tejada Noriega1%
Santiago Rosendo Abarca León0%
Luis Isael Rubio Idrogo0%
Luis Alberto Huette Tolentino0%
Edgardo Renán De Pomar Vizcarra0%
Sandro Caller Gutiérrez0%
Jessica Viviana Linares Romero0%
Rubén José Ramírez Mateo0%

All further outcomes (19 more):

Elizabeth María del Rosario León Chinchay · Victoria Betzabé La Cruz Garcés · Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca · Ricardo Pablo Belmont Cassinelli · Flor de María Hurtado Valdez · Oswaldo Hernán Vargas Cuéllar · Rubén Daniel Bonilla Espinoza · Samuel Marcos Daza Taype · Segundo Valdez Zavala · Samir Frank Quispe Caballero · Yehude Simón Munaro · Francis James Allison Oyague · Susel Ana María Paredes Piqué · Person V · Person W · Person X · Person Y · Person Z · Other

What moved the odds?

A complete combined signal timeline is unavailable. The outcome odds above remain current to the stated time.

What is this event about?

The 2026 Lima, Peru mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Lima as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Peruvian government, including the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE, https://jne.gob.pe) and the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE, https://www.onpe.gob.pe/).

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