Lecornu out as French PM

OpenOutcomes8as of

Market pricing makes December 31, 2026 the favorite at 28% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Aurélien Taché (LFI): "I think Sébastien Lecornu will be ousted in the coming weeks over the budget, or perhaps even before."
June 30, 2026israelnews2399%match98¢+2%
FLASH | Sébastien Lecornu will convene a monitoring unit tomorrow at Matignon to review the hantavirus situation. (BFMTV)
December 31, 2026FinancialJuice99%match47¢+53%
France's PM Lecornu uses constitutional powers to force the income part of the 2026 budget through the lower house without a vote.
December 31, 2025Bloomberg98%match6¢-100%
French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu faces a key vote on the social security budget on Tuesday that risks fueling political turbulence

What is this event about?

On September 9, French President Emmanuel Macron named Sébastien Lecornu as the new French Prime Minister. He resigned on October 6 after his cabinet faced severe opposition. On October 10, President Emmanuel Macron reappointed him as Prime Minister, tasking him with forming a new government. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sébastien Lecornu is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between October 10 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related events