Largest Company end of September?
Resolved25as of
This hub tracks 25 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Nvidia $NVDA is back to having a larger market cap than $5.5 Trillion
Meta Platforms $META is back to having a larger market cap than SpaceX $SPCX
Apple Could Close at $5 Trillion Market Cap for First Time Ahead of iPhone Duo Release -- Barrons.com
Apple on Track to Close at $5 Trillion Market Cap for First Time Ahead of iPhone Duo Release -- Barrons.com
A CHANGE IS COMING TO THE NASDAQ 100 • • SpaceX $SPCX will make up 2.82% of the Nasdaq 100 when the index’s quarterly rebalance takes effect Monday up from its current weighting of ~1.28% - Bloomberg
SpaceX's weighting in the Nasdaq 100 index will increase, which is expected to bring a large influx of fund buying.
SpaceX's total market capitalization has returned to $2 trillion, and its stock price has hit a new high since July 7.
SpaceX stock has been stuck in a narrow trading range recently, but a fresh wave of buying could arrive soon when the Nasdaq 100 makes its component weight adjustments later this month. The key factor is the combination of a little-discussed rule in the construction of this benchmark index and a series of progressively longer blackouts for Elon Musk's company shareholders, which have limited the number of shares available for trading. Nasdaq determines a company's weight in the index based on a market capitalization calculation, taking into account either its total outstanding shares or three times its free float, whichever is lower. This means that a stock with a low free float, which excludes insider-held shares or those subject to trading restrictions, will not have its full market capitalization used in calculating its weight. For SpaceX, which has a relatively small free float due to the blackout restrictions, this leaves it with a weight of 1/2 SpaceX's weighting in the Nasdaq 100 is 1.25%, making it the 19th largest company by market capitalization, though it ranks sixth in the index with over $2 trillion. This weighting is expected to increase following the upcoming index rebalancing, scheduled to be announced Friday after the market closes and take effect on September 21. This is partly due to the fact that restrictions on more than 1 billion shares have now been lifted, raising the free float to nearly 30% of SpaceX's outstanding shares, up from less than 10% immediately after its initial public offering. The company's free float could reach 2.25% after the rebalancing, which would require index funds and ETFs to purchase $15.5 billion worth of shares, according to JPMorgan estimates. Nasdaq data indicates that approximately $1.7 trillion A dollar's worth of assets tracked the Nasdaq 100 index through the end of the second quarter, according to Bloomberg. #Arabic_Business
Just when it looked like it was about to crash, ‘stock price rebounds’… SpaceX re-enters the $2 trillion market cap.
Nvidia $NVDA is now back to being worth ~$1 Trillion more than any other company in the world
Nvidia stock: The world's most valuable company is growing much faster than expected.
Premarket movers: • • Magnificent Seven stocks (check payers) are mostly lower even as Nvidia jumps 7.2% after the leader in AI chips gave an outlook for revenue growth that was stronger than expected. Others are mostly in the red: Alphabet -0.4%, Amazon -0.3%, Apple -1.1%, Meta Platforms -0.3%, Microsoft -1%, Tesla +0.4%. • • AI infrastructure stocks broadly gain after Nvidia’s outlook. • • CrowdStrike (CRWD) rises 8.9% after the security software company raised its full-year forecast on key metrics. • • Okta (OKTA) gains 21% after the software company boosted its full-year forecast on key metrics, including adjusted earnings and revenue. • • Salesforce (CRM) is up 12% after the software company raised its full-year forecast and announced an expanded partnership with Anthropic. • • Wendy’s Co. (WEN) plunges 12% after Reuters reported that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management has no plans to make a bid at this time to take the fast-food chain private.
Nvidia Soars 7% In Premarket As It Leads Upswing In Chip Stocks After Strong Earnings. • Nvidia said it expects revenue to rise by 70% in the next fiscal year as it sought to calm market jitter about demand for AI compute.
NVIDIA $NVDA SUPPLY COMMITMENTS MORE THAN DOUBLE TO $279B, MOSTLY MEMORY • • The CFO commentary carries several items the headline numbers left out. • • Supply and capacity commitments rose from $119B last quarter to $279B, primarily for memory procurement. Total future commitments across supply, cloud agreements, data center leases, equity investments and capex reach $366B, with $120B falling in the remainder of fiscal 2027. • • Nvidia also disclosed $105B in guarantees tied to SB Energy's PORTS-Pike campus in Ohio, securing roughly 4.25 gigawatts that will exclusively host Nvidia infrastructure under 20-year leases to OpenAI. The company says each generation deployed there could represent about 1.5 million GPUs, or $150B to $200B in Nvidia revenue, with an option to support roughly 3.8 additional gigawatts. Total guarantee exposure is $108.5B. • • On China: Data Center Hopper shipments to China were less than 1% of data center revenue in the quarter, and the Q3 outlook again assumes zero data center compute revenue from China. • • Other details: • - Q3 gross margin guided to 74.0% plus or minus 50 bps, down from 75.0% • - Days sales outstanding rose to 60 from 45, on extended payment terms with certain investment-grade customers • - Inventory up to $31.6B from $25.8B ahead of the Vera Rubin introduction in Q3 • - Free cash flow $21.3B, down from $48.6B last quarter • - Net gains from equity securities were $7.8B, which is why GAAP EPS of $2.46 exceeds the $2.22 adjusted figure • - Issued $25.0B of senior unsecured notes in the quarter • - Returned nearly $26.0B to shareholders • • Segment detail: Hyperscale $48.7B, +102%. AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise $40.3B, +138%. Edge Computing $7.2B, +27%.
Nvidia tops earnings estimates, guides to $108 billion in revenue next quarter. • The tech bellwether reported fiscal second-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday.
Antropic projects $30 trillion market size… Surpasses SpaceX
Antropics Aims for $2 Trillion IPO… Surpassing SpaceX to Surpass All-Time Largest
A Chinese Company Reached a Milestone Characteristic Of SpaceX. Shares Of Musk's Company Are Dropping.. • SpaceX's stock has been hovering around its IPO price over the past days.
$SPCX - HARVARD BETS $2.2B ON SPACEX • • Harvard Management disclosed a $2.2B stake in SpaceX (SPCX), making it over 50% of its $4.26B disclosed U.S. equity portfolio. • • The position includes roughly 12.94M shares, making SpaceX Harvard’s largest reported U.S. holding. • • Other major institutional holders include Intesa Sanpaolo (~$966M) and the University of California (~$1B). • • SpaceX shares remain above their $135 IPO price, valuing the company near $1.85T.
Alphabet's investment in SpaceX has increased a hundredfold in 10 years, reaching approximately $3 trillion.
Will Antropic Surpass SpaceX?… “Corporate Value Projected at $2 Trillion”
Wall Street sends strong signal to Nvidia stock investors. • Jensen Huang and Wall Street just unveiled a $500 billion plan to finance Nvidia AI chips as an investable asset class for data centers.
Nvidia is now almost $1 Trillion larger than every other public company • • Nvidia's $NVDA market cap has increased by more than $100 Billion so far in today's early trading
Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund Report Stake In SpaceX. Its Stock Rises.. • SpaceX shares rose back above the company's IPO price on Wednesday after a tame inflation report and the disclosure from Norway's sovereign fund about a stake in the company.
Premarket movers: • • Nvidia is the biggest gainer among Mag 7 stocks. The chipmaker’s partner Hon Hai reported a better-than-expected increase in quarterly profit, signaling robust global demand for AI hardware. (Nvidia +1.2%, Alphabet +0.8%, Meta +0.7%, Tesla +0.5%, Amazon +0.4%, Apple little changed, Microsoft -0.8%) • • Cava (CAVA) jumps 13% after the restaurant chain operator reported store comp sales for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts again note positive trends for its pomegranate glazed salmon. • • CoreWeave (CRWV) rallies 18% after the cloud-computing provider reported second-quarter results that beat expectations. Analysts are positive about the company’s margins and note that AI demand remains robust. • • ERock (EROC) is up 13% after the power systems firm reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the consensus estimate, and said Anthropic has agreed to buy 470 megawatts of onsite power equipment. • • H&R Block (HRB) is up 15% after the tax preparation company gave a full-year forecast that was stronger than expected. It also reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. • • Hyliion Holdings (HYLN) is up 23% after the company boosted its full-year revenue forecast from $10 million to $15 million. • • Lumentum (LITE) gains 8%. Analysts are positive on the maker of optical equipment after it reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook above analyst consensus. • • Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) jumps 9% after giving a revenue forecast for the current quarter that topped analysts’ estimates, a sign the booming artificial intelligence market continues to bolster sales of the company’s servers. • • US Antimony Corp. (UAMY) falls 14% after the natural resource company cut its full-year outlook for gross revenue.
According to MarketWatch, Microsoft shares have risen 30% since the company reported strong fourth-quarter results at the end of July, turning the stock positive for the year. One analyst believes this is just the beginning of a larger rally.
BofA: Nvidia's $500 Billion Funding
NVDA is bearing value, not debt:
NVDA has signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with six top financial institutions (Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR) to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital through an independent platform. The financial burden rests on the consortium's, not NVDA's, balance sheet.
GPUs as an Investable Asset Class:
With this $500 billion in capital treating computing power as an investable asset class, residual value must be maintained. NVDA provides cross-operator interchangeable and transferable computing power, while CUDA extends its lifespan, keeping resale/leasing rates high and depreciation curves moderate.
Extending the AI Development Runway:
Funding (not demand) has been the main bottleneck. This $500 billion funding pool allows non-investment-grade buyers (such as labs, emerging cloud service providers, and sovereign entities) to acquire hardware at attractive interest rates, reducing underwriting risk and supporting the long-term development path of the Total Accessible Market (TAM) for AI systems. Key Debates and Monitoring Risks: Notable concerns remain, including that memoranda of understanding are not necessarily deployed capital (requiring real end-users to pay real money), potential power and regulatory hurdles, inflationary input costs, and the opacity and complexity that the new financing structure may introduce to AI development.
Nvidia Stock Loses $130 Billion In Market Value As Firm Reportedly Enters $500 Billion AI Financing Deal. • The chip designer’s stock briefly fell more than 3% following a report it was partnering with Wall Street giants like BlackRock on the deal.
Jeff Bezos breaks his own Amazon record. • Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4 billion in Amazon stock as the company hit a $3 trillion market cap, his second-largest sale on record. See what drove the timing.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.