Largest Company end of September?
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Market pricing makes NVIDIA the favorite at 92% across 25 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Premarket movers: • • Magnificent Seven stocks (check payers) are mostly lower even as Nvidia jumps 7.2% after the leader in AI chips gave an outlook for revenue growth that was stronger than expected. Others are mostly in the red: Alphabet -0.4%, Amazon -0.3%, Apple -1.1%, Meta Platforms -0.3%, Microsoft -1%, Tesla +0.4%. • • AI infrastructure stocks broadly gain after Nvidia’s outlook. • • CrowdStrike (CRWD) rises 8.9% after the security software company raised its full-year forecast on key metrics. • • Okta (OKTA) gains 21% after the software company boosted its full-year forecast on key metrics, including adjusted earnings and revenue. • • Salesforce (CRM) is up 12% after the software company raised its full-year forecast and announced an expanded partnership with Anthropic. • • Wendy’s Co. (WEN) plunges 12% after Reuters reported that Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management has no plans to make a bid at this time to take the fast-food chain private.
Nvidia Soars 7% In Premarket As It Leads Upswing In Chip Stocks After Strong Earnings. • Nvidia said it expects revenue to rise by 70% in the next fiscal year as it sought to calm market jitter about demand for AI compute.
NVIDIA $NVDA SUPPLY COMMITMENTS MORE THAN DOUBLE TO $279B, MOSTLY MEMORY • • The CFO commentary carries several items the headline numbers left out. • • Supply and capacity commitments rose from $119B last quarter to $279B, primarily for memory procurement. Total future commitments across supply, cloud agreements, data center leases, equity investments and capex reach $366B, with $120B falling in the remainder of fiscal 2027. • • Nvidia also disclosed $105B in guarantees tied to SB Energy's PORTS-Pike campus in Ohio, securing roughly 4.25 gigawatts that will exclusively host Nvidia infrastructure under 20-year leases to OpenAI. The company says each generation deployed there could represent about 1.5 million GPUs, or $150B to $200B in Nvidia revenue, with an option to support roughly 3.8 additional gigawatts. Total guarantee exposure is $108.5B. • • On China: Data Center Hopper shipments to China were less than 1% of data center revenue in the quarter, and the Q3 outlook again assumes zero data center compute revenue from China. • • Other details: • - Q3 gross margin guided to 74.0% plus or minus 50 bps, down from 75.0% • - Days sales outstanding rose to 60 from 45, on extended payment terms with certain investment-grade customers • - Inventory up to $31.6B from $25.8B ahead of the Vera Rubin introduction in Q3 • - Free cash flow $21.3B, down from $48.6B last quarter • - Net gains from equity securities were $7.8B, which is why GAAP EPS of $2.46 exceeds the $2.22 adjusted figure • - Issued $25.0B of senior unsecured notes in the quarter • - Returned nearly $26.0B to shareholders • • Segment detail: Hyperscale $48.7B, +102%. AI Clouds, Industrial and Enterprise $40.3B, +138%. Edge Computing $7.2B, +27%.
Nvidia tops earnings estimates, guides to $108 billion in revenue next quarter. • The tech bellwether reported fiscal second-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday.
Antropic projects $30 trillion market size… Surpasses SpaceX
Antropics Aims for $2 Trillion IPO… Surpassing SpaceX to Surpass All-Time Largest
A Chinese Company Reached a Milestone Characteristic Of SpaceX. Shares Of Musk's Company Are Dropping.. • SpaceX's stock has been hovering around its IPO price over the past days.
$SPCX - HARVARD BETS $2.2B ON SPACEX • • Harvard Management disclosed a $2.2B stake in SpaceX (SPCX), making it over 50% of its $4.26B disclosed U.S. equity portfolio. • • The position includes roughly 12.94M shares, making SpaceX Harvard’s largest reported U.S. holding. • • Other major institutional holders include Intesa Sanpaolo (~$966M) and the University of California (~$1B). • • SpaceX shares remain above their $135 IPO price, valuing the company near $1.85T.
Alphabet's investment in SpaceX has increased a hundredfold in 10 years, reaching approximately $3 trillion.
Will Antropic Surpass SpaceX?… “Corporate Value Projected at $2 Trillion”
Wall Street sends strong signal to Nvidia stock investors. • Jensen Huang and Wall Street just unveiled a $500 billion plan to finance Nvidia AI chips as an investable asset class for data centers.
Nvidia is now almost $1 Trillion larger than every other public company • • Nvidia's $NVDA market cap has increased by more than $100 Billion so far in today's early trading
Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund Report Stake In SpaceX. Its Stock Rises.. • SpaceX shares rose back above the company's IPO price on Wednesday after a tame inflation report and the disclosure from Norway's sovereign fund about a stake in the company.
Premarket movers: • • Nvidia is the biggest gainer among Mag 7 stocks. The chipmaker’s partner Hon Hai reported a better-than-expected increase in quarterly profit, signaling robust global demand for AI hardware. (Nvidia +1.2%, Alphabet +0.8%, Meta +0.7%, Tesla +0.5%, Amazon +0.4%, Apple little changed, Microsoft -0.8%) • • Cava (CAVA) jumps 13% after the restaurant chain operator reported store comp sales for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts again note positive trends for its pomegranate glazed salmon. • • CoreWeave (CRWV) rallies 18% after the cloud-computing provider reported second-quarter results that beat expectations. Analysts are positive about the company’s margins and note that AI demand remains robust. • • ERock (EROC) is up 13% after the power systems firm reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the consensus estimate, and said Anthropic has agreed to buy 470 megawatts of onsite power equipment. • • H&R Block (HRB) is up 15% after the tax preparation company gave a full-year forecast that was stronger than expected. It also reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations. • • Hyliion Holdings (HYLN) is up 23% after the company boosted its full-year revenue forecast from $10 million to $15 million. • • Lumentum (LITE) gains 8%. Analysts are positive on the maker of optical equipment after it reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook above analyst consensus. • • Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) jumps 9% after giving a revenue forecast for the current quarter that topped analysts’ estimates, a sign the booming artificial intelligence market continues to bolster sales of the company’s servers. • • US Antimony Corp. (UAMY) falls 14% after the natural resource company cut its full-year outlook for gross revenue.
According to MarketWatch, Microsoft shares have risen 30% since the company reported strong fourth-quarter results at the end of July, turning the stock positive for the year. One analyst believes this is just the beginning of a larger rally.
BofA: Nvidia's $500 Billion Funding
NVDA is bearing value, not debt:
NVDA has signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOUs) with six top financial institutions (Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR) to mobilize over $500 billion in third-party capital through an independent platform. The financial burden rests on the consortium's, not NVDA's, balance sheet.
GPUs as an Investable Asset Class:
With this $500 billion in capital treating computing power as an investable asset class, residual value must be maintained. NVDA provides cross-operator interchangeable and transferable computing power, while CUDA extends its lifespan, keeping resale/leasing rates high and depreciation curves moderate.
Extending the AI Development Runway:
Funding (not demand) has been the main bottleneck. This $500 billion funding pool allows non-investment-grade buyers (such as labs, emerging cloud service providers, and sovereign entities) to acquire hardware at attractive interest rates, reducing underwriting risk and supporting the long-term development path of the Total Accessible Market (TAM) for AI systems. Key Debates and Monitoring Risks: Notable concerns remain, including that memoranda of understanding are not necessarily deployed capital (requiring real end-users to pay real money), potential power and regulatory hurdles, inflationary input costs, and the opacity and complexity that the new financing structure may introduce to AI development.
Nvidia Stock Loses $130 Billion In Market Value As Firm Reportedly Enters $500 Billion AI Financing Deal. • The chip designer’s stock briefly fell more than 3% following a report it was partnering with Wall Street giants like BlackRock on the deal.
Jeff Bezos breaks his own Amazon record. • Jeff Bezos filed to sell $4 billion in Amazon stock as the company hit a $3 trillion market cap, his second-largest sale on record. See what drove the timing.
Two major reasons fueled NVIDIA's stock price surge 11% this week! Further significant positive news may emerge at the end of the month.
#This Week's Top Reads The expiration of the lock-up period led to a flood of 912 million shares onto the market, but SpaceX shares still rose 6.1% on Thursday. Some analysts are skeptical of the stock, while retail investors see it as a "crazy buying opportunity."
SpaceX shares jumped 15.8% at the close of trading on Friday, reaching $133.11 and nearing their listing price of $135. The company's stock surge today brought its weekly gains to approximately 23%, adding more than $327 billion to its market capitalization during that period. The end of the lock-up period more than doubled the total number of shares available for trading to 1.55 billion shares, compared to 639 million shares at the time of listing. #Arabic_Business
SpaceX Stock Surges After Share Unlock Puts Investors to the Test And Gets Close To IPO Price. • The stock climbed about 18% over the past five trading sessions despite navigating its first quarterly earnings report as a public company and the largest lock-up expiration since its June initial public offering.
GOOGLE IS BACK TO BEING THE 2ND LARGEST COMPANY IN THE WORLD • • Google $GOOGL closed yesterday with a larger market cap than Apple $AAPL making it the 2nd largest company in the world behind only Nvidia
Premarket movers • • Nvidia leads Mag 7 stocks higher, poised to extend gains for a fifth consecutive session, after SPCX announced an exclusive partnership to build its future AI infrastructure entirely on NVIDIA’s platforms. Meanwhile, Tesla is underperforming as SpaceX’s debut earnings after IPO disappoints. Other Mag 7 names are mostly higher (Nvidia +1.8%, Alphabet +1.2%, Apple +0.9%, Amazon +0.7%, Meta +0.5%, Microsoft +0.2%, Tesla -1.2%) • • AMD (AMD) falls 7% after the chipmaker’s third-quarter sales forecast underwhelmed investors expecting a stronger performance amid healthy demand. • • Arista Networks (ANET) jumps 12% after the cloud-networking company forecast better-than-expected revenue for the third quarter. Analysts note that demand remains very healthy. • • Booking (BKNG) is up 7% after the online travel agency reported gross bookings for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The company said healthy global travel trends continued into the third quarter despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. • CVS Health (CVS) rises 3% after the health insurer boosted its adjusted earnings per share guidance for the full year. • Digital Turbine (APPS) soars 27% after the mobile network company boosted its revenue guidance for the full year that topped the average analyst estimate and first-quarter results beat the consensus. • • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) gains 6% after the animal health firm boosted its revenue and adjusted profit guidance for the full year, following better-than-expected results for the second quarter. • • Everus Construction (ECG) climbs 9% postmarket after raising its year revenue and Ebitda outlook. Second-quarter results topped expectations, with revenue growing 34% from the year-ago period. • • Flutter (FLUT), the parent of the FanDuel, falls 5% after the company cut its US revenue guidance for the full year and appointed President Dan Taylor as chief executive officer from Oct. 1. • • Kratos (KTOS) gains 10% after the defense contractor boosted its revenue guidance for the full year, topping the average analyst estimate. • • Match Group (MTCH) drops 8% after providing a revenue forecast for the current quarter that narrowly missed analysts’ estimates, suggesting its dating sites still need to attract more younger users. • • New York Times (NYT) falls 8% after the news company reported second-quarter results. • • Pinterest (PINS) drops 9% after the social media platform’s revenue outlook for the current quarter disappointed investors. • • Shopify (SHOP) climbs 28% after the e-commerce platform operator reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. • • SpaceX (SPCX) falls 11% after it disclosed higher-than-expected spending on its artificial intelligence business, overshadowing an inaugural quarterly report that broadly surpassed Wall Street forecast.
Saudi Aramco's profits jump 42% year-on-year in the second quarter, reaching SAR 121.5 billion. Revenues rise by 19% in the second quarter to SAR 451 billion. Basic dividend of SAR 82.1 billion will be distributed for the second quarter of 2026. #Arabia_Business
Anticipation builds for the Saudi market opening following Aramco's quarterly results... Aramco's quarterly profits jump 42% to SAR 121.5 billion Aramco reports free cash flow of SAR 46 billion in Q2 2026 @Nadine_bn
#MarketsOpen
#ArabiaBusiness
Shares of Amazon hit a new all-time high on Monday, putting its market cap over the $3 trillion threshold following a better-than-expected earnings report last week. • • Mondayâ€s new record is the best day for Amazon since May 5. • • Full details:
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.