Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31?
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Market pricing makes Kanye West arrested in Russia by October 31? the favorite at 2%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
No directional matched news signals are available across this event yet.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is arrested in Russia between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Ye is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in Russia, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Ye is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Ye is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Ye is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Ye is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Ye being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.