Kansas Senate Election Winner
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Market pricing makes Roger Marshall (R) the favorite at 63% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
The Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC is launching a $5 million statewide television ad blitz in Kansas starting Saturday through Election Day — the latest sign that Democrats believe the Senate map is shifting onto red turf. • • I asked Dem Senate candidate Adam Hamilton last week whether he would accept funding from the group. • • In our interview, he also told me Schumer is a “liability” for his campaign.
The DDHQ Forecast still gives Marshall about a 2 in 3 chance of reelection. Why Kansas is on the board, plus the generic ballot and control of Congress: • •
Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024. Democrats haven't won a Senate race there since 1932. • • But Democrat Adam Hamilton runs a hair ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in DDHQ's new Kansas polling average. #KSSen
Trump won Kansas by 16 points in 2024. Democrats haven't won a Senate race there since 1932. • • But Democrat Adam Hamilton runs a hair ahead of Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in DDHQ's new Kansas polling average. #KSSen
In a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall suddenly finds himself in a competitive race with weeks to go until the 2026 midterm elections. • • Read the full story:
The Cook Political Report just moved the Kansas Senate race to TOSS UP. • • Kansas. • • Which hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932. • •
In a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932, Republican Sen. Roger Marshall suddenly finds himself in a competitive race with weeks to go until the 2026 midterm elections. • • Stubborn inflation, blowback from White House trade policies, and a formidable Democratic challenger in megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton have combined to turn ruby-red Kansas into an unexpected Senate battleground. • • Read more:
Kansas has emerged as an unexpected Senate battleground, forcing national Republicans to spend millions defending GOP Sen. Roger Marshall in a state Donald Trump carried by 16 points in 2024.
The race for the deep red Kansas Senate has taken a turn, and the Republican Party may suffer its first defeat in 94 years.
The race for the deep red Kansas Senate has taken a turn, and the Republican Party may suffer its first defeat in 94 years.
Congressional midterm elections; Kansas awaits a historic surprise
⠀ Newsweek: Poll results in Kansas indicate that the state's Senate seat, which has been held by the Republican Party for more than 100 years, may go to the Democrats in the November midterm elections.
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#IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
Senate GOP PAC set to invest $14M in tight Kansas Senate race Senate Leadership Fund (SLF), a political action committee aligned with Republican Senate leadership, is upping its spending in Kansas as the race for Senate heats up. The group plans to invest $14 million to support incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas), according to a source familiar with SLF’s plans. Much of that will go toward ads…
NEW POLLING AVERAGE: Kansas Senate • • Adam Hamilton - 45.6% • Roger Marshall - 45.4% • • Democrat Adam Hamilton narrowly leads Republican Roger Marshall in our new Kansas polling average. • • Marshall remains the favorite in the DDHQ Forecast, with a 77% win probability.
NEW POLLING AVERAGE: Kansas Senate • • Adam Hamilton - 45.6% • Roger Marshall - 45.4% • • Democrat Adam Hamilton narrowly leads Republican Roger Marshall in our new Kansas polling average. • • Marshall remains the favorite in the DDHQ Forecast, with a 77% win probability.
Live: Two former GOP governors in Kansas endorse Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton
Another former GOP governor backs Hamilton over Marshall for Kansas Senate Former Kansas Gov. Mike Hayden (R) became the second former GOP governor to support Democrat Adam Hamilton over Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) in November’s Kansas Senate race. Hayden, who served from 1987 to 1991, published an op-ed in the Wichita Eagle Friday endorsing Hamilton for a seat that has not been held by a Democrat…
Another former GOP governor backs Hamilton over Marshall for Kansas Senate Former Kansas Gov. Mike Hayden (R) became the second former GOP governor to support Democrat Adam Hamilton over Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) in November’s Kansas Senate race. Hayden, who served from 1987 to 1991, published an op-ed in the Wichita Eagle Friday endorsing Hamilton for a seat that has not been held by a Democrat…
Live: Former Gov. Mike Hayden of Kansas, a Republican, this morning endorsed the Democratic Senate nominee in the state, the Rev. Adam Hamilton. Hamilton is challenging Senator Roger Marshall, a first-term Republican, in a red state whose farming-heavy economy has been hit hard by President Trump’s tariffs and the Iran War.
NEW: Memo circulated by campaign of Adam Hamilton, who is running against Sen Roger Marshall (R-KS) • • "Five independent race raters have shifted this race multiple times towards Hamilton. In the last two weeks, two major pollsters show Hamilton leading... Marshall by 2 points"
NEW: Memo circulated by campaign of Adam Hamilton, who is running against Sen Roger Marshall (R-KS) • • "Five independent race raters have shifted this race multiple times towards Hamilton. In the last two weeks, two major pollsters show Hamilton leading... Marshall by 2 points"
GOP fears ‘perfect storm’ could lead to Marshall’s loss in red-state Kansas It’s been 94 years since Kansas voters sent a Democrat to the Senate. But Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, is looking to make that jump as Republicans grow more and more unsettled about incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall’s chances in the heartland. “It’s all or nothing in a sense, because the story is that after 96…
GOP fears ‘perfect storm’ could lead to Marshall’s loss in red-state Kansas It’s been 94 years since Kansas voters sent a Democrat to the Senate. But Adam Hamilton, a prominent pastor, is looking to make that jump as Republicans grow more and more unsettled about incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall’s chances in the heartland. “It’s all or nothing in a sense, because the story is that after 96…
Live: Arch Naramore, a centrist Republican who staged a long-shot primary challenge against Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas, said today that he was endorsing Marshall’s Democratic opponent, the Rev. Adam Hamilton. Naramore won about 20 percent of the vote in the primary.
#KSSEN: Democrat Adam Hamilton touts endorsement from Arch Naramore, a former Republican primary candidate who got 20% last month against GOP Sen. Roger Marshall
Re Kansas — Two weeks ago, POLITICO overheard a senior member of Kansas’ Republican party leadership complaining about their state’s tighter-than-expected Senate race on a shuttle at the GOP convention in Dallas. • • GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, the person said, was in some trouble even as Republicans tried to dismiss the seriousness of his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton. • • Top national Rs are still largely dismissing those concerns - but their internal polling has had Trump’s approval underwater in deep red Kansas for months. • •
Re Kansas — Two weeks ago, POLITICO overheard a senior member of Kansas’ Republican party leadership complaining about their state’s tighter-than-expected Senate race on a shuttle at the GOP convention in Dallas. • • GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, the person said, was in some trouble even as Republicans tried to dismiss the seriousness of his Democratic challenger, Adam Hamilton. • • Top national Rs are still largely dismissing those concerns - but their internal polling has had Trump’s approval underwater in deep red Kansas for months. • •
! The Kansas GOP chair is urging nat'l Republican groups to pour more $$$ into the state's tight Senate race btw Marshall + Hamilton. "If Republicans don’t turn out, we’re in a world of hurt," via @lindsaywise @aaronzitner + Cam McWhirter
Vice President Vance notably calling out Kansas Democratic Senate candidate Adam Hamilton, along with Texas candidate James Talarico at a rally in Council Bluffs, Iowa. • • Comes as polls show a tightening Senate race in Kansas.
The echoes of Pat Roberts here are unmistakable • • Not just lacking his own home in Kansas, but the spouse being a realtor elsewhere. In Roberts’s case, it was suburban, DC. Here, it is Florida. • • (Of course, Roberts benefited from a flawed primary opponent, longer incumbency and a great environment in Obama’s second midterm…) • • Public records show his wife has held a Florida real estate license for half of her husband’s Senate term and has another license application pending. Records also show Roger Marshall has held fishing licenses in Florida since 2019 and used a P.O. Box in Kansas as his primary personal mailing address. • • He appeared Saturday alongside Hamilton at the Kansas State Fair in Hutchinson in the first senatorial debate of the season, where he addressed his residency. • • “My home is a short hour’s drive down a gravel road here,” Marshall said. • • The crowd groaned, laughed and jeered • •
The echoes of Pat Roberts here are unmistakable • • Not just lacking his own home in Kansas, but the spouse being a realtor elsewhere. In Roberts’s case, it was suburban, DC. Here it is Florida. • • (Of course, Roberts benefited from a flawed primary opponent, longer incumbency and a great environment in Obama’s second midterm…) • • Public records show his wife has held a Florida real estate license for half of her husband’s Senate term and has another license application pending. Records also show Roger Marshall has held fishing licenses in Florida since 2019 and used a P.O. Box in Kansas as his primary personal mailing address. • • He appeared Saturday alongside Hamilton at the Kansas State Fair in Hutchinson in the first senatorial debate of the season, where he addressed his residency. • • “My home is a short hour’s drive down a gravel road here,” Marshall said. • • The crowd groaned, laughed and jeered • •
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.