Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic

OpenOutcomes3as of

Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 5% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

December 31alarabytv93%match95¢
On Putin's orders, the head of the Russian National Guard promoted Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov to the rank of Colonel General.
Kadyrov was inaugurated for the third time on his birthday. Unlike the last one, this one took place without a video. Ramzan Kadyrov was the last of the ten regional leaders elected or re-elected in September to take office on Monday. For the third consecutive time, the Chechen leader's inauguration took place on October 5th, his birthday. Monday marks Kadyrov's 50th birthday. Grozny is also celebrating City Day on the same day, a date that was moved to coincide with the republic's head of state's birthday almost 20 years ago. Details. All other regional governors elected in September took office before Kadyrov. The last to be inaugurated before him were Belgorod Region Governor Alexander Shuvaev and Ulyanovsk Region Governor Alexey Russkikh, on October 2. Kadyrov's inaugurations in 2016 and 2021 also coincided with his birthday. When journalists pointed out the coincidence in 2016, those close to the Chechen leader dismissed it as a coincidence. Kadyrov's first two ceremonies took place on different dates—April 5, 2007, and 2011. Kadyrov's birthday also coincides with Grozny City Day, which has been celebrated in Grozny on this day since 2007 (it was in that year that Kadyrov first became the head of the republic). Unlike in 2021, when a video of the ceremony appeared on Kadyrov's Instagram account and on TASS's feed, this time, at the time of this article's publication, the Chechen authorities and state media had not released the full inauguration video. In 2021, it was thanks to the recording of the ceremony that users noticed a world map with numerous geographical errors placed behind Kadyrov. The ceremony took place on Monday at the residence of the head of Chechnya. Kadyrov took the oath of office and then declared that leading the republic is a responsibility "to the Almighty, to the people, and to the President of Russia," and promised to "defend the Quran, the Constitutions of Russia, and the Chechen Republic." He attended the ceremony wearing national dress, accompanied by his son, Adam. One of the most notable congratulatory messages came from the Mufti of Chechnya, Salah-Khadzhi Mezhiyev. He called on residents to pray for Kadyrov, declaring, "If I had only one prayer, I would pray for the Head." Yuri Chaika, the presidential envoy to the North Caucasus Federal District, called Kadyrov's inauguration a celebration not only for Chechnya but for "the entire North Caucasus." Kadyrov received congratulations from Mikhail Mishustin, Valentina Matviyenko, Vyacheslav Volodin, Alexander Lukashenko, Sergey Lavrov, Sergey Naryshkin, Alexey Dyumin, heads of Russian regions, and other officials. Two days before his anniversary, Vladimir Putin promoted Kadyrov to the rank of army general, and Rosgvardia Director Viktor Zolotov presented him with new shoulder straps and a maroon beret. Chechen state media is giving the anniversary particularly extensive coverage. Grozny State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (CGTRK) called Kadyrov "an outstanding political figure, a patriot of our great country, a courageous warrior," and a man who "rebuilt the republic from ruins." The television company noted that Kadyrov is its "Honorary President and Mobile Reporter," so its staff considers him a colleague. Federal television channels also weighed in. This morning, Channel One dedicated a roughly five-minute segment to Kadyrov's 50th birthday, calling him "a confident leader, his father's son." The channel covered his official election result—99.85%—and Chechnya's achievements under his rule. A special feature of the segment was 19-year-old Grozny resident Akhmed Shabazov, who received financial assistance from his father's foundation after a chance encounter with Kadyrov. Channel One also announced a special report for Kadyrov's anniversary. Russia 1 aired a story titled "Grozny Celebrates City Day with Ramzan Kadyrov's Inauguration." It was presented as the main event of City Day. On Monday, Patriarch Kirill of the Russian Orthodox Church awarded Kadyrov the Order of Glory and Honor, 1st Class. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
December 31vesti.ru98%match95¢
Ramzan Kadyrov took office as head of the Chechen Republic
Kadyrov has assumed office as head of Chechnya for a new term.
December 31rbc.ru96%match95¢
Kadyrov has assumed office as head of Chechnya for a new term.
December 31News92%match95¢
URGENT Inauguration of Ramzan Kadyrov took place in Grozny
Vladimir Putin has awarded Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov the rank of army general. Rosgvardia Director Viktor Zolotov presented the Chechen leader with general's shoulder straps and a maroon beret at a ceremony in Grozny. "Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has instructed me today to convey his decree awarding Hero of Russia Colonel-General Kadyrov the highest military rank – army general," Mr. Zolotov said (quoted by TASS). Ramzan Kadyrov, for his part, awarded Mr. Zolotov the title of Hero of Chechnya "for personal service to the Chechen Republic and its people, and a significant contribution to protecting the interests of the Fatherland." Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | on Telegram
United Russia showed its worst result in the State Duma elections in Chechnya since 2007. For the first time, Ramzan Kadyrov did not participate in the federal campaign. United Russia's result in the State Duma elections in Chechnya (92.99%) was the worst during Ramzan Kadyrov's rule. The ruling party received less - 87.1% - in the republic only in 2003, when his father, Akhmat Kadyrov, was president of Chechnya. This year, for the first time in history, Ramzan Kadyrov did not lead the Chechen regional group in the Duma elections. Local United Russia members were led in the elections by State Duma deputy Shamsail Saraliev. In 2007, as then president of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov led the regional group of United Russia members in the State Duma elections for the first time. Then, the ruling party received 99.36% of the vote in the republic. Four years later, United Russia won an even higher 99.48% of the vote in Chechnya. This is the party's best result in history. In 2016 and 2021, the United Russia party list in the Chechen Duma elections received 96.29% and 96.13% of the vote, respectively. Of course, claiming the "worst" result in history, using figures of 90% or more, is somewhat of a stretch. United Russia, in Chechnya, continues to demonstrate the best results in the country. But numbers are a stubborn thing: no matter how you look at it, the percentage of votes for United Russia in the republic's Duma elections has been falling since 2011, and Kadyrov's absence from the ballot "collapsed" the result by more than 3%. Nevertheless, the "North Korean" result was once again achieved, in part, thanks to the integration of the federal campaign with regional and local ones: in parallel with the Duma elections, Chechnya held elections for the republican parliament, the head of the region, and the Grozny Duma. Kadyrov broke his own record in the Chechen presidential election (99.85%). The "failure" of United Russia in Chechnya did not affect the outcome of the State Duma elections in any way; as usual, no one from the republic except United Russia made it to the lower house. But, in Kadyrov's own words, "those who don't understand will understand." Nezygar has repeatedly drawn attention to his health problems and his desire to install his 18-year-old son, Adam, as the head of Chechnya. This is unconstitutional and at odds with the Kremlin's position. Perhaps, by withdrawing from the Duma elections, Kadyrov is "bargaining" with Staraya Ploshchad. The decline of United Russia's results in Chechnya demonstrates the enormous role Kadyrov himself plays in the region's political structure. He can manipulate election results if he chooses, while United Russia receives the necessary percentage of the vote nationwide largely thanks to electoral "sultanates," which the Chechen Republic has always been. The ruling party clearly has no interest in losing such an "ally."
December 31alarabiya97%match89¢+7%
After receiving 99.85 percent of the vote, the Russian Central Election Commission announced the re-election of Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, as the leader of Chechnya for a fifth term.
December 31alhadath97%match89¢+7%
After receiving 99.85 percent of the vote, the Russian Central Election Commission announced the re-election of Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally of President Vladimir Putin, as the leader of Chechnya for a fifth term.
December 31lefigaro.fr95%match91¢+4%
Chechnya: Ramzan Kadyrov re-elected for a fifth term with 99.85% of the vote
December 31alarabiya94%match92¢+3%
Ramzan Kadyrov wins the Chechen presidential election with 99.8% of the vote.
December 31iranintlbrk98%match91¢+4%
Ramzan Kadyrov was elected for a fifth term as leader of Chechnya, a predominantly Muslim region in southern Russia, with 99.85 percent of the vote. Putin has given Kadyrov broad powers to govern the region in exchange for ensuring stability in Chechnya.
December 31dbws.io92%match91¢+4%
Russia’s Kadyrov re-elected leader of Chechnya with almost 100% of the vote
December 31vesti.ru92%match92¢+3%
Kadyrov won the Chechen presidential election with 99.85% of the vote.
December 31Russian Media96%match91¢+4%
The current head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov (United Russia), received 99.85% of the vote in the regional elections, with 99.63% of the protocols processed. Chairman of the Public Chamber of Chechnya, Ismail Denilkhanov (A Just Russia), and deputy of the republic's parliament, Khalid Nakayev (CPRF), both received 0.05%. #elections2026 [in reply to: Ramzan Kadyrov receives 97.35% of the vote in the Chechen presidential elections, with 2.4% of the protocols processed. Second place in the elections for the head of the republic went to the candidate from A Just Russia, Ismail Denilkhanov (1.53%), and third place went to the candidate from the CPRF, Khalid Nakayev (0.98%). #elections2026]
December 31Russian state TV92%match91¢+4%
Ramzan Kadyrov wins the Chechen presidential election with 99.85% of the vote after 100% of the votes have been processed, according to the Central Election Commission. Acting Governor of the Belgorod Region Alexander Shuvaev wins the regional presidential election with 65.97% of the votes after 100% of the votes have been processed. Incumbent Governor of Mordovia Zdunov leads with 78.44% of the votes after 91.24% of the votes have been processed. The current head of Tuva, Vladislav Khovalyg, wins the regional gubernatorial election with 90.95% of the vote after 100% of the protocols have been processed. The acting governor of Bryansk Oblast, Yegor Kovalchuk, is leading the regional gubernatorial election with 68.03% of the vote – 96.2% of the protocols have been processed. Vitaly Korolev is leading the Tver Oblast gubernatorial election with 69.8% after 90.7% of the protocols have been processed. The current governor of Penza Oblast, Oleg Melnichenko, is leading the election with 70.92% of the vote after 98.2% of the protocols have been processed. Alexey Russkikh leads the Ulyanovsk Oblast gubernatorial election after 97% of the ballots have been processed – 76.65% of the votes have been collected. To stay up to date with the latest news: Website | MAX | Telegram
December 31Russian Media94%match90¢+6%
Ramzan Kadyrov has received 99.85% of the vote in the Chechen presidential election after 99.63% of the votes have been processed, according to the Central Election Commission. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: Ramzan Kadyrov has received 97.35% of the vote in the Chechen presidential election after 2.40% of the votes have been processed, according to the Central Election Commission. Turnout in the republic exceeded 93% by 6:00 PM on the final day of voting. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
December 31News91%match90¢+6%
URGENT Kadyrov wins the Chechen presidential election with 99.85% of the vote after 100% of the ballots were processed.
December 31kommersant.ru92%match90¢+6%
Kadyrov wins Chechen presidential election after 99% of votes were counted.
December 31News92%match91¢+4%
CHECHNYA'S HEAD KADYROV WINS THE REGIONAL ELECTION WITH 99.85% OF THE VOTES AFTER 100% OF THE PROTOCOLS HAVE BEEN PROCESSED - CEC DATA
December 31Russian Media97%match91¢+4%
Ramzan Kadyrov was re-elected as the head of Chechnya with 99.85% of the votes, following the processing of 98.71% of the protocols. This was Ramzan Kadyrov's third direct election since leading the Chechen Republic. In 2021, he received 99.7% of the vote with a turnout of 94.61%. In 2016, he received 97.94% with a turnout of 94.8%. Acting head of the Tver region, Vitaly Korolev, received 69.8% of the votes, following the processing of 90.76% of the protocols, according to the Central Election Commission. In Mordovia, the incumbent head of the republic, Artem Zdunov, who ran in the elections from United Russia, was re-elected for a new term. He received 78.45% of the votes after 91.24% of the protocols were processed. RBC app for iOS and Android RBC channel on "Max"
December 31News92%match92¢+3%
URGENT Kadyrov leads the Chechen presidential election with 99.83% of the vote after 88.19% of the ballots have been processed.
December 31Russian state TV97%match91¢+4%
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, representing United Russia, leads the regional gubernatorial election with 99.80% of the vote after 61.99% of the ballots have been processed, according to the Central Election Commission. Ismail Denilkhanov of A Just Russia is in second place with 0.08%, and Khalid Nakayev of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is in third place with 0.07%.
December 31News93%match91¢+4%
URGENT Kadyrov leads the Chechen presidential election with 99.80% of the vote after 61.99% of the ballots have been processed.
December 31News93%match91¢+4%
URGENT Kadyrov leads the Chechen presidential election with 99.77% of the vote after 33.58% of the ballots were processed.
December 31Russian Media92%match90¢+6%
Ramzan Kadyrov, Yegor Kovalchuk, Alexander Shuvaev, and Alexei Russkikh are leading in the elections for the heads of Chechnya, Bryansk, Belgorod, and Ulyanovsk regions, respectively, according to data from the Central Election Commission. After processing 2.4% of the protocols, Kadyrov has received 97.35% of the vote. In the Bryansk region, Kovalchuk has received 69.72% after processing 50.15% of the protocols, and in the Belgorod region, Shuvaev has received 63.44% after processing 51.08%. Russkikh is leading with 77.1% after processing 50% of the protocols. RBC app for iOS and Android RBC channel on "Max"
December 31Russian Media97%match91¢+4%
Ramzan Kadyrov has received 97.35% of the vote in the Chechen presidential election, after 2.4% of the votes have been processed. Second place in the republic's presidential election went to Ismail Denilkhanov, a candidate from A Just Russia (1.53%), and third place went to Khalid Nakayev, a candidate from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (0.98%). #elections2026
December 31kommersant.ru91%match91¢+4%
Kadyrov wins 97.35% of votes in Chechen presidential elections

What is this event about?

Ramzan Kadyrov is currently serving as the Head of the Chechen Republic, the highest political office of the Chechen Republic, a Republic of Russia. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ramzan Kadyrov ceases to be Head of the Chechen Republic for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Ramzan Kadyrov will be considered to cease being the Head of the Chechen Republic if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Head of the Chechen Republic within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Chechen Republic and the Russian Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.