Israel x Iran permanent peace deal
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This hub tracks 5 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
‘Fingers on trigger but focus is on sustainable peace’: Iran
‘Fingers on trigger but focus is on sustainable peace’: Iran
Salam: We are open to a peace agreement with Israel after our demands are met.
Salam: We are open to a peace agreement with Israel after our demands are met.
Despite renewed clashes between the U.S. Navy and Iran in as well as around the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, chances on Polymarket of a permanent peace settlement between the two countries by the end of the year remain at an all time high, with traders still predicting that the chances of a deal by December 31, 2026 are at 77%.
Traders see just one-in-three chance of US-Iran peace deal before June
Israeli Broadcasting Authority, citing sources: Israel believes negotiations with Iran are a waste of time.
Israeli Broadcasting Authority, citing sources: Israel believes negotiations with Iran are a waste of time.
Jeffrey Sachs: The declared goals of the war against Iran are not achievable. I advise Israel to shut up. isna.ir/xdWjkv @isna94
Pakistan PM Sharif: "I sincerely hope that both sides will continue to observe the ceasefire and be able to conclude a comprehensive ‘Peace Deal’ during the second round of talks scheduled at Islamabad for a permanent end to the conflict."
Pakistan PM Sharif: "I sincerely hope that both sides will continue to observe the ceasefire and be able to conclude a comprehensive ‘Peace Deal’ during the second round of talks scheduled at Islamabad for a permanent end to the conflict."
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.