Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
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The United States and Iran have extended the 60-day ceasefire, Al Arabiya reported, citing sources. Earlier, Anadolu News Agency reported that the parties had decided to extend the ceasefire, citing sources in the Pakistani government. The current agreement expires on August 17. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: The United States and Iran have agreed to extend the 60-day ceasefire, Anadolu News Agency reports, citing sources in the Pakistani government. The current agreement expires on August 17. According to the agency, the parties have not yet determined how long the ceasefire will be extended. Consultations on this issue are ongoing. Earlier, The Atlantic magazine wrote that the administration of US President Donald Trump has changed its approach to resolving the conflict with Iran and abandoned diplomatic steps and military action. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
The United States and Iran have extended the ceasefire agreement, which was set to expire today, August 17, Al Arabiya reports, citing sources. RBK Channel on "Max" RBK app for iOS and Android
The government is expected to approve tomorrow the extension of the state of emergency in the home front until August 11, due to security uncertainty regarding Iran.
The government is expected to approve tomorrow the extension of the state of emergency in the home front until August 11, due to security uncertainty regarding Iran.
Mediators push for new ceasefire, but Trump considers return to full-scale war President Trump is approaching a crucial crossroads in the war with Iran, with senior American and Israeli officials claiming that he has only two realistic options: promoting a new 10-day ceasefire, designed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Or: launching a new, large-scale military campaign together with Israel, with the aim of forcing Tehran to surrender. Why is this important: Trump has not yet made a decision. However, those familiar with the details believe that the coming days will determine which path he chooses, with only limited room for maneuver left to continue the ongoing and undecided war that currently paralyzes the Gulf region. In the news center: Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan and other regional mediators have presented the United States and Iran with a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, two regional sources with direct knowledge of the effort said. According to senior American officials, the Trump administration is reviewing the proposal and does not want Israel to take any steps at this time that could close the diplomatic window of opportunity. But that could change quickly if Trump decides he is not interested in a ceasefire. At the same time, Washington is also preparing for the possibility that the talks will fail. The US military has sent dozens of fighter jets and refueling planes to the region in recent days, thus mobilizing the forces needed for a significant military escalation. Israeli sources say that the IDF is on high alert and preparing for a scenario of expanding the fighting to a full, coordinated campaign within days. The big picture: Ten consecutive nights of American bombing failed to break Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, deepening Trump's involvement in a war that he himself repeatedly declared he had already won. At least three American soldiers have been killed since the fighting resumed. Trump said Monday he had ordered the Pentagon to make Iran "pay many times over" for every American soldier killed. Oil prices briefly crossed $90 a barrel over the weekend after Iran expanded its attacks on merchant ships and infrastructure in the Gulf. U.S. gas prices also rose again, fueling public criticism of an already unpopular war. focusing on: Regional mediators are once again trying to stem the cycle of escalation, which is becoming more deadly, costly, and harder to contain with each additional attack. The new ceasefire proposal includes: a 10-day cessation of fighting, the opening of both shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, and the creation of a calm that will allow Washington and Tehran to save the crumbling Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). "We told the United States and Iran that we are offering a cooling-off period," said one of the regional sources. Snapshot: At this point, neither Trump nor Iran has agreed to the offer, and both sides are still trying to improve their bargaining position through additional strikes before agreeing to a ceasefire. Meanwhile, the Houthis in Yemen, who are supported by Iran, have declared a naval blockade of Saudi ports, thus opening another front against energy infrastructure and shipping lanes in the region. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that Israel will respond to any Iranian attack with massive strikes, increasing the risk of the war expanding from the Gulf to the Red Sea and Israel. behind the scenes: According to regional sources, the mediators are trying to build on a proposal discussed on July 11 in Muscat between Oman, Iran, and Qatar, during which the United States demanded that Iran publicly commit to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. The talks ended without an agreement, and shortly thereafter Iran attacked merchant ships in the Strait - which led to the start of the American bombing campaign, which has continued every night since. According to the proposal: Both shipping lanes in the Strait will be fully reopened. The southern lane, which passes through Omani territorial waters, will be free from Iranian attacks, the northern lane, which passes through Iranian territorial waters, will be free from the American blockade. During the ten-day ceasefire, the United States and Iran will negotiate a long-term arrangement to regulate passage through the Strait. One option would allow Iran and Oman to charge "reasonable service fees" for shipping security, environmental protection and other services, according to one of the sources. The same source pointed to the Strait of Malacca model, in which Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore charge for certain services, but do not impose a general transit fee. Another idea is that the funds will be channeled into a joint fund to be managed with the participation of the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Among the parties involved in the mediation: Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatari envoy Ali Al-Thawadi, Pakistani Army Commander Field Marshal Asim Munir, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdel-Ati, and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi. between the lines: A regional source said ceasefire efforts gained momentum on Saturday but stalled after an Iranian missile strike in Jordan killed at least two American soldiers, prompting Washington to temporarily withdraw from the talks. A senior American official confirmed that the talks are continuing, but said that Trump has not yet finished responding to the killing of American soldiers. “The president is focused on making Iran pay for violating the memorandum of understanding and continuing its terrorist activities in the Strait of Hormuz,” the US official said. “The president will also make Iran pay for the killing of American soldiers. These devastating blows will continue until the president decides otherwise.” What they say: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaie confirmed on Monday that mediators are working to prevent further escalation. "The offers that were submitted through the intermediaries were accepted by us, but at this stage I prefer not to go into their details," he said at a press conference. He added that Iran's armed forces will continue to "respond forcefully and strike at the source of American aggression." Why to pay attention: It is unclear whether Trump received a full briefing on the ceasefire outline, or whether he would be willing to agree to another temporary ceasefire without a clear path to a permanent agreement. Since the collapse of the ceasefire, Trump has expressed deep frustration with Tehran, calling its leaders "sick people" and saying that continuing negotiations is a "waste of time." A regional source said the White House may continue bombing Iran for a few more days to avenge the deaths of American soldiers in Jordan, before seriously considering the proposal. The bottom line: “We are trying to formulate a sustainable solution,” said one regional source. “The Iranians cannot dictate the terms, but they cannot be ignored either.”
Live: Iran war, day 142 - what to know
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.