Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal
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"Don't drag the army into the trap of the agreement"... Will the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel return?
Sources close to the event: Iran accused Israel of obstructing the implementation of the memorandum of understanding by remaining in southern Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel will remain in what he calls the "buffer zone" in southern Lebanon "as long as necessary," while simultaneously claiming that his country is making efforts to reach a peace agreement with Lebanon.
Israel launches airstrikes on 15 villages and towns in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah announces 5 operations. Details and field and military developments are reported by Al-Hadath correspondents Hiba Musalha and Mahmoud Shukr.
Israel bombs southern and eastern Lebanon, Hezbollah speaks of a "predicament"
Israel bombs southern and eastern Lebanon; Hezbollah speaks of a dead end.
Hezbollah fired 200 projectiles over the weekend at Israel: army official
Footage from the operation targeting the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon on May 14, 2026, shows a gathering of Israeli enemy soldiers at the Ras al-Naqoura military site in southern Lebanon, during a sweeping attack.
#Israel and #Lebanon extend the ceasefire, but bombing continues in southern Lebanon. Tensions in the Middle East continue to rise as new negotiations progress in Washington.
Israeli violations continue in southern Lebanon, and a state of anticipation prevails within Lebanon after Hezbollah agreed to abide by the ceasefire if Israel does the same.
Release of images of Hezbollah drone attack on Israeli army wireless communications system Lebanese Hezbollah announced that the operation was carried out on 05-14-2026. #ازالة_يسرايل_من_الوجود
Hezbollah drone attack on Israeli army wireless communications system Lebanese Hezbollah released images of the Islamic Resistance's drone operation against the wireless communications system belonging to the Zionist enemy army at the newly established "Balat" site near the town of "Ramiyeh" in southern Lebanon. Lebanese Hezbollah announced that this operation was carried out on 05-14-2026. @TasnimNews
Report: Even if Israel occupies southern Lebanon through military force, it will not be able to destroy all of Hezbollah’s explosive drones or rockets. •
Israeli strikes target eastern and southern Lebanon, state media reports, despite a fragile ceasefire, as a Hezbollah lawmaker calls Lebanon’s negotiations with Israel a “dead-end.” • •
Hezbollah is willing to cooperate with a cease-fire with Israel. For now.
BREAKING: Hezbollah says truce with Israel cannot be one-sided • • LIVE updates:
Katz after the ceasefire: Disarming Hezbollah remains the goal of the campaign, significant political leverage has been created for its completion @Doron_Kadosh
Katz: We in Lebanon are in the midst of a war against Hezbollah, with a freeze on the situation and a 10-day ceasefire.
Katz: Disarming Hezbollah by military or political means remains the objective of the battle to which we are committed.
Celebrations and relief in Lebanon as ceasefire with Israel begins – video
Smoke is seen rising from a Lebanese village as seen from northern Israel, hours after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire.
German Foreign Minister: Israel and Lebanon need long-term agreements to secure their borders.
Hezbollah praises forces and promises vigilance during ceasefire
German Foreign Minister: Israel and Lebanon need long-term agreements to secure their borders.
The old man welcomed the ceasefire; we warn against Hezbollah exploiting the decision and doubt its chances of success.
Lebanese Foreign Minister: We seek a permanent ceasefire through negotiations that guarantees Israel's withdrawal and the restoration of state sovereignty.
Hezbollah: For 45 days we targeted Israeli settlements and cities, from the border to beyond Tel Aviv, reaching a depth of 160 km.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.