1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of Oct 19, 2026, 08:10 UTC.

September 3iranintl92%match

Israel's attacks on southern Lebanon and the strategic heights of Ali al-Taher have raised questions about the Islamic Republic's commitment to guaranteeing Lebanon's territorial integrity in the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding. The Israeli military announced on September 3 that it had gained "operational control" over the heights, but Hezbollah has not fully confirmed or denied this claim. Ali al-Taher, near Nabatiyeh, is a strategic position for Hezbollah. Reports indicate that Israel's goal is to destroy military infrastructure and cut off Hezbollah's front lines from its operational rear. The Islamic Republic, which included Lebanon in the first paragraph of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, considers the Israeli attacks a violation of the agreement, but has not yet taken direct military action in response to the developments in Ali al-Taher. Reuters had reported that Tehran had warned the United States via Oman about a large-scale attack on Ali al-Taher. At the same time, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, implicitly announced the occupation of some areas by Israel and spoke of the declaration of a "forbidden zone" outside the Strait of Hormuz; a sign of Tehran's focus on the Persian Gulf instead of opening a new front in Lebanon.

Sep 9, 2026, 03:14 UTC

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Israel Daylight Time (IDT). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebanon. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Lebanon do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Lebanon” refers to the terrestrial territory of Lebanon, including its internal waters. Lebanon’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Lebanon as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IDT) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Lebanon and a consensus of credible reporting.