Israel and Syria normalize relations
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Market pricing makes December 31, 2026 the favorite at 11% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Syria Update: From the Fall of Assad to the Bombing of Abu al-Duhur 1- December 8–10, 2024: Following the fall of Assad, Israel launched more than 350 airstrikes in about 48 hours, targeting Syrian airports, aircraft, missiles, air defenses and military arsenal. Israel occupied the "buffer zone" in the Golan Heights and established nine outposts, and supported the Druze in Suwayda. 2- December 13, 2024: Russia began dismantling and withdrawing military equipment from Khmeimim, including elements of the S-400 system, days after extensive Israeli strikes. 3- February/March 2025: Damascus and Ankara began discussing military cooperation that included training the Syrian army and rebuilding its capabilities, including air defense. 4- March 21–25, 2025: Israel bombed the T4 and Palmyra airbases in central Syria on more than one occasion, coinciding with Turkish moves to explore the use of military bases. 5- April 2–3, 2025: Israel resumed bombing T4, Hama airport, and other sites. It was later revealed that Turkey had inspected Syrian bases as part of potential defense arrangements with Damascus. 6- April 9, 2025: Turkey and Israel begin technical talks to establish a deconfliction mechanism in Syria, amid escalating tensions over a potential Turkish military presence. 7- May 6, June 13, July 28, August 4, 2025: A series of phone calls between Putin and Netanyahu amid military and political developments in Syria. 8- July 2025: Israel escalates its attacks, bombing the Ministry of Defense and the vicinity of the Presidential Palace in Damascus during the events in Suwaida. 9- October 6, 2025: A phone call between Putin and Netanyahu discusses Syria and regional issues. It is believed that Netanyahu asked Putin during their communications not to deliver missile systems and strategic weapons to Syria. 10- October 15, 2025: Nine days later, al-Sharaa visits Moscow for the first time and meets with Putin to discuss the future of the relationship and the Russian military presence in Hmeimim and Tartus. 11- November 15, 2025: Putin contacts Netanyahu again, a month after his meeting with al-Sharaa, and Syria is among the regional issues discussed. 12- January 28, 2026: Al-Sharaa visits Moscow for the second time and meets with Putin, as negotiations progress regarding the future of the Russian military presence in Syria. 13- May 2025 – January 6, 2026: Five rounds of Syrian-Israeli negotiations, sponsored by the United States, focus on reaching a security agreement, Israel's withdrawal from the territories it occupied after the fall of Assad, reviving the 1974 disengagement agreement, and halting airstrikes. Incursions and occupations continue. No agreement is reached. Syria demands withdrawal to the December 8th line. Israel continues its incursions and occupations. 14- August 9, 2026: Damascus and Moscow announce a new understanding regarding Hmeimim and Tartus and the reorganization of the Russian military presence. 15- August 10, 2026: Two Syrian pilots fly MiG-21 fighter jets over Idlib in northern Syria, as part of the resumption of air force training activities. 16- August 11, 2026: Israeli reports reveal that Israel is monitoring the rebuilding of the Syrian air force and the recruitment and training of pilots, and that it has conveyed its concerns to Washington. 17- August 18, 2026: Israel launches eight airstrikes on Abu al-Duhur airbase in Idlib, targeting the runway and storage facilities. Abu al-Duhur is about 70 km from the Turkish border. 18- August 18, 2026: Syria, Arab countries and Turkey condemn the raids, and US envoy Tom Barak criticizes the Israeli escalation.
#Breaking | Syrian President: We stress the necessity of Israel's withdrawal from the territories it occupied in southern Syria
#Breaking | Syrian President: We stress the necessity of Israel's withdrawal from the territories it occupied in southern Syria
Syrian Foreign Ministry to Syrian TV: Negotiations with Israel are currently stalled #SyriaToday
Syrian Foreign Ministry to Syrian TV: Negotiations with Israel are currently stalled #SyriaToday
Al-Sharaa: Israel responded to Syria with brutality, and we chose the path of diplomacy. #SocialSky #Syria
Al-Sharaa: Israel responded to Syria with brutality, and we chose the path of diplomacy. #SocialSky #Syria
Al-Sharaa: Israel responded to Syria with brutality, and we chose the path of diplomacy. #SocialSky #Syria #Israel
Al-Sharaa: Israel responded to Syria with brutality, and we chose the path of diplomacy. #SocialSky #Syria #Israel
Syrian President: We tried direct and indirect negotiations with Israel. We reached good points, but Israel changed its mind at the last moment.
Syrian President: We tried direct and indirect negotiations with Israel. We reached good points, but Israel changed its mind at the last moment.
Syrian President: We tried direct and indirect negotiations with Israel. We reached good points, but Israel changed its mind at the last minute
Syrian President: We tried direct and indirect negotiations with Israel. We reached good points, but Israel changed its mind at the last minute
Cordone: We demand that Israel respect Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and abide by the 1974 Disengagement Agreement. #SANA
Cordone: We demand that Israel respect Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and abide by the 1974 Disengagement Agreement. #SANA
A post-sanctions world for the new Syria: Syria announces normalization with federal reserve bank of New York
A post-sanctions world for the new Syria: Syria announces normalization with federal reserve bank of New York
BREAKING: Israel, US assessed “no path for negotiations” despite diplomatic efforts - AJ Correspondent LIVE updates:
Riyadh Seeks To Replace Israel With Syria For EU Fiber-Optic Cable Route
Riyadh Seeks To Replace Israel With Syria For EU Fiber-Optic Cable Route
SYRIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: NEGOTIATIONS WITH ISRAEL WILL END WITH ITS WITHDRAWAL FROM THE TERRITORIES IT ENTERED AFTER DECEMBER 8.
AL-SHIBANI: OUR FIRST AND LAST CONDITION IS THAT ISRAEL WITHDRAWS FROM THE TERRITORIES IT OCCUPIED AFTER DECEMBER 8, 2024.
The country’s actions in Syria “could create real enemies for Israel and become a self-fulfilling prophecy”, one expert warns
Within hours of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator, fleeing in December last year, Israeli troops were on the move. They occupied territory in Syria and, a year later, they are still there
Within hours of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator, fleeing in December last year, Israeli troops were on the move. They occupied territory in Syria and, a year later, they are still there
Syria marks one year since fall of al-Assad
Syria marks one year since fall of al-Assad
Al-Shibani: Israel since 7 December is the worrying cause for the Syrians
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Syria officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Syria, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.