Iran full airspace closure

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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 17% across 10 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

August 31Newswire97%match57¢-100%
57% chance Iran fully closes its airspace by September. • •
July 15zerohedge99%match9¢-100%
Amid the sharp military escalation, odds of a full Iran blockade by July 13 jumped 50% since the last update 4 days ago
July 31almayadeenlive98%match78¢+28%
Iran: Civil Aviation Organization: No notice has been issued ordering the closure of Hormozgan Airport or any other airports in the south of the country.
June 30aljazeera.com99%match0¢
Live: How war on Iran changed the global energy sector forever
July 31Iran Semi-Official Fars99%match19¢-100%
Head of the Civil Aviation Organization: On Monday, at the same time as the funeral of the martyred revolutionary leader, Tehran's skies will be completely closed and no flights will be operated. @Farsna
Head of the Civil Aviation Organization: On Monday, at the same time as the funeral of the martyred revolutionary leader, Tehran's skies will be completely closed and no flights will be operated. @Farsna
Head of the Civil Aviation Organization: On Monday, at the same time as the funeral of the martyred revolutionary leader, Tehran's skies will be completely closed and no flights will be operated. @Farsna
Head of the Civil Aviation Organization: On Monday, at the same time as the funeral of the martyred revolutionary leader, Tehran's skies will be completely closed and no flights will be operated. @Farsna
July 31cbsnews.com99%match19¢-100%
Live: EU reiterates warning to airlines to avoid Mideast airspace, citing uncertainty over U.S.-Iran ceasefire
June 30cbsnews.com99%match100¢
Live: EU reiterates warning to airlines to avoid Mideast airspace, citing uncertainty over U.S.-Iran ceasefire
July 15aljazeera.com99%match9¢-100%
Live: Shipping unions and companies to consider Strait of Hormuz a warzone until at least July 9
July 31iranintl98%match81¢+23%
Reuters news agency reported, citing two senior Iranian officials, that Tehran is determined to consolidate its control over the Strait of Hormuz and the right to determine the passage of ships, and if necessary, to use force to achieve this goal. According to Reuters, the officials said that the Islamic Republic will not discuss other disputes until the issue of control of the Strait of Hormuz is resolved in negotiations with the United States. They added that if the interim agreement ends without extension, the Islamic Republic will start collecting fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz from mid-August. Reuters quoted one of the officials as saying that the Islamic Republic will not allow the situation to return to pre-war conditions. According to the official, Tehran wants new arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, based on which it has the right to determine the entry and exit routes of ships, prevent the entry of vessels that are considered a threat to Iran's security, and collect fees for mandatory services.
August 31iranintl99%match34¢-100%
Reuters news agency reported, citing two senior Iranian officials, that Tehran is determined to consolidate its control over the Strait of Hormuz and the right to determine the passage of ships, and if necessary, to use force to achieve this goal. According to Reuters, the officials said that the Islamic Republic will not discuss other disputes until the issue of control of the Strait of Hormuz is resolved in negotiations with the United States. They added that if the interim agreement ends without extension, the Islamic Republic will start collecting fees from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz from mid-August. Reuters quoted one of the officials as saying that the Islamic Republic will not allow the situation to return to pre-war conditions. According to the official, Tehran wants new arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz, based on which it has the right to determine the entry and exit routes of ships, prevent the entry of vessels that are considered a threat to Iran's security, and collect fees for mandatory services.
Next week's holiday circular has been announced Tehran province will be closed on Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday, July 13, 14 and 16. Monday, July 15, the entire country will be closed. Tuesday, July 16, Qom will be closed. Thursday, July 18, Khorasan Razavi will be closed. Get the latest news: Site | ITA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Next week's holiday circular has been announced Tehran province will be closed on Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday, July 13, 14 and 16. Monday, July 15, the entire country will be closed. Tuesday, July 16, Qom will be closed. Thursday, July 18, Khorasan Razavi will be closed. Get the latest news: Site | ITA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Vice President issues circular on next week's holidays Based on the circular issued by the head of the country's administrative and employment organization to executive agencies, Tehran province will be closed on Saturday, Sunday and Tuesday, July 13, 14 and 16, Tehran province, Monday, July 15 throughout the country, Qom province on Tuesday, July 16, and Khorasan Razavi on Thursday, July 18. This holiday has been approved by the Cabinet with the aim of facilitating the movement and attendance of pilgrims and mourners at the funeral ceremony of the martyred leader of the revolution. @IRNA_1313
July 31Iranian Media99%match19¢-100%
Mehrabad Airport to be closed from 5am on Friday / Complete suspension of Tehran flights on Monday #Airport @IRIBNEWS_COM
July 15Iranian Media99%match8¢-100%
Mehrabad Airport to be closed from 5am on Friday / Complete suspension of Tehran flights on Monday #Airport @IRIBNEWS_COM
August 31Iranian Media99%match66¢+52%
Mehrabad Airport to be closed from 5am on Friday / Complete suspension of Tehran flights on Monday #Airport @IRIBNEWS_COM
Details of the closure of Tehran and Mashhad skies during the days of the martyred leader's funeral; Mehrabad will be closed from Friday The Civil Aviation Organization announced special flight plans during the days of the farewell ceremony for the martyred leader and announced: Due to the presence of diplomatic delegations and the holding of the funeral ceremony, Mehrabad Airport will be completely closed from Friday morning and Tehran's skies on Monday. He also announced the temporary closure of Mashhad Airport on July 9. @IRNA_1313
Details of the closure of Tehran and Mashhad skies during the days of the martyred leader's funeral; Mehrabad will be closed from Friday The Civil Aviation Organization announced special flight plans during the days of the farewell ceremony for the martyred leader and announced: Due to the presence of diplomatic delegations and the holding of the funeral ceremony, Mehrabad Airport will be completely closed from Friday morning and Tehran's skies on Monday. He also announced the temporary closure of Mashhad Airport on July 9. @IRNA_1313
Details of the closure of Tehran and Mashhad skies during the days of the martyred leader's funeral; Mehrabad will be closed from Friday The Civil Aviation Organization announced special flight plans during the days of the farewell ceremony for the martyred leader and announced: Due to the presence of diplomatic delegations and the holding of the funeral ceremony, Mehrabad Airport will be completely closed from Friday morning and Tehran's skies on Monday. He also announced the temporary closure of Mashhad Airport on July 9. @IRNA_1313
July 31Iranian Media99%match81¢+23%
Details of flight restrictions at Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini airports announced The head of the Civil Aviation Organization announced the imposition of extensive flight restrictions in Tehran and announced that Mehrabad Airport will be completely closed starting Friday morning, and on Monday, due to the funeral ceremony, Tehran's skies will be completely empty of flights. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_IR
August 31Iranian Media99%match66¢+52%
Details of flight restrictions at Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini airports announced The head of the Civil Aviation Organization announced the imposition of extensive flight restrictions in Tehran and announced that Mehrabad Airport will be completely closed starting Friday morning, and on Monday, due to the funeral ceremony, Tehran's skies will be completely empty of flights. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_IR
July 31Iran Semi-Official ILNA99%match19¢-100%
Details of the closure of the country's airports during the funeral ceremony of the martyred revolutionary leader Chairman of the Civil Aviation Organization: Mehrabad Airport will be closed on Friday in conjunction with the farewell ceremony and funeral of the martyred revolutionary leader, and only diplomatic and political flights will be conducted. Imam Khomeini Airport will operate as usual on this day. On Monday of next week, the skies of Tehran and the airspace of Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini airports will be completely closed, and no flights will be conducted. On Tuesday, Mehrabad Airport will return to normal operations, but Imam Khomeini Airport will remain closed due to the transfer of the martyred leader's body to Iraq. On July 8, the airspace of this city and its satellite airports will be completely closed, simultaneously with the funeral ceremony in Mashhad.
Details of the closure of the country's airports during the funeral ceremony of the martyred revolutionary leader Chairman of the Civil Aviation Organization: Mehrabad Airport will be closed on Friday in conjunction with the farewell ceremony and funeral of the martyred revolutionary leader, and only diplomatic and political flights will be conducted. Imam Khomeini Airport will operate as usual on this day. On Monday of next week, the skies of Tehran and the airspace of Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini airports will be completely closed, and no flights will be conducted. On Tuesday, Mehrabad Airport will return to normal operations, but Imam Khomeini Airport will remain closed due to the transfer of the martyred leader's body to Iraq. On July 8, the airspace of this city and its satellite airports will be completely closed, simultaneously with the funeral ceremony in Mashhad.
Details of the closure of the country's airports during the funeral ceremony of the martyred revolutionary leader Chairman of the Civil Aviation Organization: Mehrabad Airport will be closed on Friday in conjunction with the farewell ceremony and funeral of the martyred revolutionary leader, and only diplomatic and political flights will be conducted. Imam Khomeini Airport will operate as usual on this day. On Monday of next week, the skies of Tehran and the airspace of Mehrabad and Imam Khomeini airports will be completely closed, and no flights will be conducted. On Tuesday, Mehrabad Airport will return to normal operations, but Imam Khomeini Airport will remain closed due to the transfer of the martyred leader's body to Iraq. On July 8, the airspace of this city and its satellite airports will be completely closed, simultaneously with the funeral ceremony in Mashhad.
July 31iranintlbrk99%match81¢+23%
The head of the Civil Aviation Organization announced that Mehrabad Airport will be closed from 5 am on Friday, and Tehran's skies will be closed on Monday, coinciding with the state funeral ceremony for Khamenei.
July 15iranintlbrk99%match8¢-100%
The head of the Civil Aviation Organization announced that Mehrabad Airport will be closed from 5 am on Friday, and Tehran's skies will be closed on Monday, coinciding with the state funeral ceremony for Khamenei.
August 31iranintlbrk99%match66¢+52%
The head of the Civil Aviation Organization announced that Mehrabad Airport will be closed from 5 am on Friday, and Tehran's skies will be closed on Monday, coinciding with the state funeral ceremony for Khamenei.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.

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