Iowa Senate Election Winner
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Market pricing makes Ashley Hinson (R) the favorite at 57% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
21 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Hottest 2026 Midterm Races—Democrat Jackson Leads In Maine Senate Race, Republican Hinson Ahead In Iowa (Updated Daily). • Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver’s poll tracker.
Hinson leads Iowa Senate contest as Sand holds edge for governor: Poll Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) leads her Democratic opponent Josh Turek for Iowa’s open Senate seat as Democratic state auditor Rob Sand holds an edge over his GOP opponent Zach Lahn in the gubernatorial contest, according to a new poll from Emerson College Polling and The Hill. The poll reported Hinson notched 47 percent of support,…
Hinson leads Iowa Senate contest as Sand holds edge for governor: Poll Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) leads her Democratic opponent Josh Turek for Iowa’s open Senate seat as Democratic state auditor Rob Sand holds an edge over his GOP opponent Zach Lahn in the gubernatorial contest, according to a new poll from Emerson College Polling and The Hill. The poll reported Hinson notched 47 percent of support,…
NEW — A Republican involved in a recent fundraiser for Ashley Hinson acknowledged growing fears that the Senate race in Iowa is too close for such a red state. • • They said Hinson risked losing the seat if she didn’t put more space between herself and Trump — as tariffs, high fuel prices and his beef import moves roil Iowa voters. • • “He’s putting Iowa in play,” one House Republican who has spoken to Hinson said of President Trump • • via @politico
Probabilities: • Ashley Hinson: 52% • Josh Turek: 48% • • Polling Average: • Josh Turek: 45.5% • Ashley Hinson: 43.4% • • Find our forecast on Votes:
Probabilities: • Ashley Hinson: 52% • Josh Turek: 48% • • Polling Average: • Josh Turek: 45.5% • Ashley Hinson: 43.4% • • Find our forecast on Votes:
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: In the last week, the DDHQ Forecast for Iowa's Senate race has shifted 7 points towards the Democrats. • • Republican Ashley Hinson is now at a 52% probability to win, and the race is listed as a Toss Up.
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: In the last week, the DDHQ Forecast for Iowa's Senate race has shifted 7 points towards the Democrats. • • Republican Ashley Hinson is now at a 52% probability to win, and the race is listed as a Toss Up.
New Iowa Senate poll from GSG obtained by Semafor (Turek internal) • • Turek (D) 46 • Hinson (R) 42 • Laehn (L) 6 • • Trump 9 points underwater in Iowa • •
New Iowa Senate poll from GSG obtained by Semafor (Turek internal) • • Turek (D) 46 • Hinson (R) 42 • Laehn (L) 6 • • Trump 9 points underwater in Iowa • •
Democratic Turek holds narrow lead in Iowa Senate race, internal polling shows
Ashley Hinson (R)Democratic state auditor Rob Sand is leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the tense Iowa governor’s race, new polling shows, while Democrat Josh Turek trails Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in the wide-open Senate race. A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Iowa survey found Sand with 49 percent of voters in the gubernatorial race, compared to…94%match64¢-11%
Sand holds edge over Lahn in Iowa governor’s race while Hinson leads Turek for Senate: Poll
Josh Turek (D)Democratic state auditor Rob Sand is leading Republican businessman Zach Lahn in the tense Iowa governor’s race, new polling shows, while Democrat Josh Turek trails Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in the wide-open Senate race. A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Iowa survey found Sand with 49 percent of voters in the gubernatorial race, compared to…92%match63¢-8%
Sand holds edge over Lahn in Iowa governor’s race while Hinson leads Turek for Senate: Poll
Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is running for the United States Senate in Iowa, a State I love and WON BIG, THREE TIMES, in 2016, 2020, and 2024. I know Ashley well, and she is a WINNER! A Loving Wife and Proud Mother of two sons, Ashley is a wonderful person, has ALWAYS delivered for Iowa, and will continue doing so in the United States Senate. She is working hard to Create Jobs, Cut Taxes, Promote Products and Services MADE IN AMERICA by our incredible Iowa Workers, Support our Great Farmers and American Agriculture, Champion Innovation, Continue to Help Secure our now very Secure Southern Border, Stop Migrant Crime, Murderers, and other Criminals from illegally entering our Country, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment. Ashley Hinson will be an outstanding Senator, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement – SHE WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN!
Iowa focus group of Independent voters for Senate race, by @J_L_Partners. Bad for Republicans • - Most don't know much about Ashley Hinson or Josh Turek • - Affordability - seen through prism of tariff impact on farmers • - Cancer and water pollution also important • - Most view the race in national terms
Iowa focus group of Independent voters for Senate race, by @J_L_Partners. Bad for Republicans • - Most don't know much about Ashley Hinson or Josh Turek • - Affordability - seen through prism of tariff impact on farmers • - Cancer and water pollution also important • - Most view the race in national terms
Secrets today: Exclusive Iowa focus group and the issues that could cost Republicans the Senate. The only good news for the GOP is that most aren't sure who Ashley Hinson is, so that massive war chest and an advertising blitz could turn things around
Live: Obama endorses Iowa Democrat Josh Turek for US Senate in new ad
Obama, the last Democrat to win Iowa in a presidential election, backs #IASEN nominee Josh Turek in a new video:
Republican Ashley Hinson is the favorite in the DDHQ Forecast for the Iowa Senate election. • • She has a win probability of 60% against Democrat Josh Turek.
Republican Ashley Hinson is the favorite in the DDHQ Forecast for the Iowa Senate election. • • She has a win probability of 60% against Democrat Josh Turek.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.