Iowa Senate Election Winner
Open13as of
Market pricing makes Ashley Hinson (R) the favorite at 61% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Iowa focus group of Independent voters for Senate race, by @J_L_Partners. Bad for Republicans • - Most don't know much about Ashley Hinson or Josh Turek • - Affordability - seen through prism of tariff impact on farmers • - Cancer and water pollution also important • - Most view the race in national terms
Iowa focus group of Independent voters for Senate race, by @J_L_Partners. Bad for Republicans • - Most don't know much about Ashley Hinson or Josh Turek • - Affordability - seen through prism of tariff impact on farmers • - Cancer and water pollution also important • - Most view the race in national terms
Secrets today: Exclusive Iowa focus group and the issues that could cost Republicans the Senate. The only good news for the GOP is that most aren't sure who Ashley Hinson is, so that massive war chest and an advertising blitz could turn things around
Live: Obama endorses Iowa Democrat Josh Turek for US Senate in new ad
Obama, the last Democrat to win Iowa in a presidential election, backs #IASEN nominee Josh Turek in a new video:
Republican Ashley Hinson is the favorite in the DDHQ Forecast for the Iowa Senate election. • • She has a win probability of 60% against Democrat Josh Turek.
Republican Ashley Hinson is the favorite in the DDHQ Forecast for the Iowa Senate election. • • She has a win probability of 60% against Democrat Josh Turek.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.