IA-01 House Election Winner
Open8as of
Market pricing makes Christina Bohannan (D) the favorite at 92% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: Among the notable Republicans in the newly shifted districts released today by the Cook Political Report are Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn of Iowa, whose races moved to leaning Democratic from toss-ups. Both recently joined Democrats in voting for a House resolution requiring congressional approval for military actions in Iran.
Pulling $$$ from IA-01 (Trump +8) would be eye-opening. Still, Miller-Meeks barely won in 2020 & 2024, consistently running behind Trump. • • DDHQ's forecast gives Democrats a clear edge in win probability in all 3 seats: • #IA01 76% 24% • #NJ07 82% 18% • #NE02 92% 8%
News: House Rs are entering triage mode and are now discussing pulling $ from three of their toughest races: Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, Rep. Tom Keane in New Jersey, and an open seat in Nebraska, per 3 sources • • w/ @DavidWright_7 • •
Vulnerable Iowa Republicans rally around Trump’s Iowa steel plant announcement GOP Iowa Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson, a nominee for the Senate, joined President Trump in the Oval Office Monday for his announcement of a new steel plant in their state as they brace for a tough November midterm election. The president announced a massive $15 billion steel plant in the Hawkeye State and…
Overall, Decision Desk HQ's forecast gives Democrats about a 2 in 3 chance of flipping the House. The fates of Republican Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01) & Zach Nunn (IA-03) will play a major part in that. • • See DDHQ's forecast here: •
Decision Desk HQ's 2026 forecast currently views both of these Iowa Republicans as slight underdogs. Democrats have around a 2 in 3 shot of winning each House seat. • • → IA-01: 70% D • → IA-03: 66% D
Decision Desk HQ's 2026 forecast currently views both of these Iowa Republicans as slight underdogs. Democrats have around a 2 in 3 shot of winning each House seat. • • → IA-01: 70% D • → IA-03: 66% D
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).