How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
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Market pricing makes 1-3 the favorite at 98% across 4 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
The first hurricane of 2026 is expected to hit the Atlantic Ocean, the latest formation yet, possibly due to El Niño.
The first hurricane of 2026 is expected to hit the Atlantic Ocean, the latest formation yet, possibly due to El Niño.
The first hurricane of 2026 is expected to hit the Atlantic Ocean, the latest formation yet, possibly due to El Niño.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.