How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
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Market pricing makes 2 (50 bps) the favorite at 65% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Markets reduce bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026 after US jobs data
FED HIKE EXPECTATIONS SURGE • • Kalshi now forecasts 2.4 Fed rate hikes this year, up sharply from around 2.1 earlier this week. • • The jump signals a significant hawkish repricing of Fed expectations. •
FED’S BARR SIGNALS MORE RATE HIKES AHEAD • • Fed Governor Michael Barr says further rate hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation back to target after last week’s 25bp increase. • • Barr said the Fed had been “out of position” before the latest hike. • • The Fed’s dot plot reinforces the hawkish message: 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike in 2026, with four projecting two.
FED’S BARR SIGNALS MORE RATE HIKES AHEAD • • Fed Governor Michael Barr says further rate hikes will likely be needed to bring inflation back to target after last week’s 25bp increase. • • Barr said the Fed had been “out of position” before the latest hike. • • The Fed’s dot plot reinforces the hawkish message: 16 of 18 officials expect at least one more hike in 2026, with four projecting two.
POLYMARKET ODDS OF ANOTHER FED RATE HIKE IN 2026 ARE AT 84% • • The contract is up 8 points, from around 75% two days ago. • • The Fed raised rates 25bps to 3.75-4.00% Wednesday, and the dot plot showed 12 of 18 officials penciling in one more 25bp hike this year, four seeing two, and two seeing none.
POLYMARKET ODDS OF ANOTHER FED RATE HIKE IN 2026 ARE AT 84% • • The contract is up 8 points, from around 75% two days ago. • • The Fed raised rates 25bps to 3.75-4.00% Wednesday, and the dot plot showed 12 of 18 officials penciling in one more 25bp hike this year, four seeing two, and two seeing none.
WALL STREET RETHINKS “ONE-AND-DONE” FED HIKE • • The Fed’s hawkish September meeting is pushing several banks to add another hike or reduce expected rate cuts, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, NatWest, Rabobank, Swedbank and Commerzbank. • • The median analyst forecast still sees one additional 25bp hike, although views are split between October and December, while Citi, ING and SEB maintain that September was the final hike.
A new scenario predicts two US interest rate hikes before the end of 2026
#AlArabiya_Business
Macquarie Expects 50 Bps of Additional US Fed Rate Hikes, with 25 Bps Each Likely in December and Q1 2027
Macquarie Expects 50 Bps of Additional US Fed Rate Hikes, with 25 Bps Each Likely in December and Q1 2027
September 2026 FOMC: Fed Hikes 25bp, Hawkish Dot Plot, and Is This a New Hiking Cycle?. • Introduction Did the Federal Reserve just restart a hiking cycle — or only recalibrate policy after a long pause? On September 1
FED DOT PLOT COULD SIGNAL ANOTHER 2026 HIKE • • The Fed’s updated Dot Plot is expected to show rates ending 2026 near 4.1%, implying another hike after today’s anticipated 25bp increase. • • The bigger question is 2027: projections may still signal eventual rate cuts even after near-term tightening. • • Market angle: whether the Fed preserves a 2027 cut could determine whether today’s message is interpreted as hawkish or more balanced.
FED DOT PLOT COULD SIGNAL ANOTHER 2026 HIKE • • The Fed’s updated Dot Plot is expected to show rates ending 2026 near 4.1%, implying another hike after today’s anticipated 25bp increase. • • The bigger question is 2027: projections may still signal eventual rate cuts even after near-term tightening. • • Market angle: whether the Fed preserves a 2027 cut could determine whether today’s message is interpreted as hawkish or more balanced.
FED DOT PLOT COULD SIGNAL ANOTHER 2026 HIKE • • The Fed’s updated Dot Plot is expected to show rates ending 2026 near 4.1%, implying another hike after today’s anticipated 25bp increase. • • The bigger question is 2027: projections may still signal eventual rate cuts even after near-term tightening. • • Market angle: whether the Fed preserves a 2027 cut could determine whether today’s message is interpreted as hawkish or more balanced.
HSBC Expects US Fed to Hike Interest Rates by 25 Bps Each in September and December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of No Policy Change
HSBC Expects US Fed to Hike Interest Rates by 25 Bps Each in September and December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of No Policy Change
According to a report by Cailian Press on September 14, JPMorgan Chase expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December 2026, compared to its previous forecast of only one rate hike in December 2026.
According to a report by Cailian Press on September 14, JPMorgan Chase expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December 2026, compared to its previous forecast of only one rate hike in December 2026.
According to a report by Cailian Press on September 14, JPMorgan Chase expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points each in September and December 2026, compared to its previous forecast of only one rate hike in December 2026.
JP Morgan Expects Fed to Hike Interest Rates by 25 Bp Each in September and December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of One Hike in December
UBS Global Wealth Management Expects US Fed to Deliver 25 Bp Rate Hikes Each in September and December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of No Policy Change
Macquarie Expects US Fed to Hike Interest Rates by 25 Bps in September 2026 vs Prior Forecast of a Hike in December
Macquarie Expects US Fed to Hike Interest Rates by 25 Bps in September 2026 vs Prior Forecast of a Hike in December
Barclays Bank surprises markets, predicting two Fed rate hikes by the end of 2026 #Arabic_Business
Barclays Bank surprises markets, predicting two Fed rate hikes by the end of 2026 #Arabic_Business
Barclays Bank surprises markets, predicting two Fed rate hikes by the end of 2026 #Arabic_Business
Barclays Expects US Fed to Hike Rates by 25 Bps Each in September and December This Year vs Prior Forecast of Rates Unchanged
WELLS FARGO NOW SEES FED HIKES • • Wells Fargo Investment Institute now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps in 2026, reversing its previous forecast for no change. • • It also expects another 25-bp hike in 2027, taking the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%. • • The shift marks a more hawkish outlook for U.S. monetary policy over the next 18 months.
WELLS FARGO NOW SEES FED HIKES • • Wells Fargo Investment Institute now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps in 2026, reversing its previous forecast for no change. • • It also expects another 25-bp hike in 2027, taking the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%. • • The shift marks a more hawkish outlook for U.S. monetary policy over the next 18 months.
Bank of America economists reiterated their forecast that the Fed will raise rates • • 3 TIMES in 2026
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.