How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
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Market pricing makes 1 (25 bps) the favorite at 45% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
27 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
WELLS FARGO NOW SEES FED HIKES • • Wells Fargo Investment Institute now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps in 2026, reversing its previous forecast for no change. • • It also expects another 25-bp hike in 2027, taking the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%. • • The shift marks a more hawkish outlook for U.S. monetary policy over the next 18 months.
WELLS FARGO NOW SEES FED HIKES • • Wells Fargo Investment Institute now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 bps in 2026, reversing its previous forecast for no change. • • It also expects another 25-bp hike in 2027, taking the federal funds rate to 4.00%–4.25%. • • The shift marks a more hawkish outlook for U.S. monetary policy over the next 18 months.
Bank of America economists reiterated their forecast that the Fed will raise rates • • 3 TIMES in 2026
US Rate Futures Price In Just 28 BPs Of Hike By December Vs 32 BPs Before Jobs Data
US Rate Futures Price In Just 28 BPs Of Hike By December Vs 32 BPs Before Jobs Data
U.S. rate futures price in 28bps of Fed hikes by December, down from 32bps before the U.S. nonfarm payrolls release. (
U.S. rate futures price in 28bps of Fed hikes by December, down from 32bps before the U.S. nonfarm payrolls release. (
U.S. rate futures price in 28bps of Fed hikes by December, down from 32bps before the U.S. nonfarm payrolls release. (
US Rate Futures Price in Just 28 Bps of Hike by December vs 32 Bps Before Jobs Data
BOFA CEO BACKS THREE FED RATE HIKES • • Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan reiterated the bank's forecast for three Fed rate hikes in September, October and December, saying the labor market remains strong while inflation still needs to ease. • • He also noted that spending patterns between higher- and lower-income consumers are becoming more aligned, calling it a positive sign for the economy.
BNP SEES FED HIKES PUSHING YIELDS HIGHER • • BNP Paribas expects U.S. Treasury yields to keep rising as markets price in future Fed rate hikes. • • The bank forecasts three Fed hikes starting in December, arguing investors will continue to question the Fed's credibility after last week's decision to hold rates steady despite three dissenting votes for a hike.
Market pricing had previously reflected investors' expectations of nearly two rate hikes in the next 12 months. However, after hearing Warsh's remarks on Wednesday, they are now beginning to doubt whether the Fed chairman is truly willing to deliver on his rate hike expectations.
Market pricing had previously reflected investors' expectations of nearly two rate hikes in the next 12 months. However, after hearing Warsh's remarks on Wednesday, they are now beginning to doubt whether the Fed chairman is truly willing to deliver on his rate hike expectations.
JP Morgan Expects US Fed to Hike Rates by 25 Bps in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of Rates Unchanged This Year
JP Morgan Expects US Fed to Hike Rates by 25 Bps in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of Rates Unchanged This Year
JUST IN: CITADEL SECURITIES EXPECTS SURPRISE FED RATE HIKE TOMORROW • • The call comes as odds of a 25 bps hike at the July meeting fall to 21% on Polymarket .com, down 6 points on the day. The FOMC decision lands tomorrow.
JUST IN: CITADEL SECURITIES EXPECTS SURPRISE FED RATE HIKE TOMORROW • • The call comes as odds of a 25 bps hike at the July meeting fall to 21% on Polymarket .com, down 6 points on the day. The FOMC decision lands tomorrow.
2026 rate hike odds rising tick for tick with oil prices. now almost at 2 fully priced-in hikes by December (per SOFR). Meanwhile, on Polymarket 2 hikes is now the majority market, and rising.
2026 rate hike odds rising tick for tick with oil prices. now almost at 2 fully priced-in hikes by December (per SOFR). Meanwhile, on Polymarket 2 hikes is now the majority market, and rising.
2026 rate hike odds rising tick for tick with oil prices. now almost at 2 fully priced-in hikes by December (per SOFR). Meanwhile, on Polymarket 2 hikes is now the majority market, and rising.
FED RATE HIKE ODDS FOR 2026 JUST TURNED INTO A THREE-WAY COIN FLIP ON POLYMARKET • • Traders currently price it: • • • Two hikes: 33% • • One hike: 32% • • Zero hikes: 31% • • Less than a week ago, zero hikes was the runaway favorite at roughly 60%. That collapsed in the same week oil surged back above $100 on the Iran escalation, and two hikes went from an afterthought near 15% to the slight leader.
FED RATE HIKE ODDS FOR 2026 JUST TURNED INTO A THREE-WAY COIN FLIP ON POLYMARKET • • Traders currently price it: • • • Two hikes: 33% • • One hike: 32% • • Zero hikes: 31% • • Less than a week ago, zero hikes was the runaway favorite at roughly 60%. That collapsed in the same week oil surged back above $100 on the Iran escalation, and two hikes went from an afterthought near 15% to the slight leader.
FED RATE HIKE ODDS FOR 2026 JUST TURNED INTO A THREE-WAY COIN FLIP ON POLYMARKET • • Traders currently price it: • • • Two hikes: 33% • • One hike: 32% • • Zero hikes: 31% • • Less than a week ago, zero hikes was the runaway favorite at roughly 60%. That collapsed in the same week oil surged back above $100 on the Iran escalation, and two hikes went from an afterthought near 15% to the slight leader.
POLYMARKET TRADERS PRICING IN A 63% CHANCE OF A 2026 FED RATE HIKE, UP 11 POINTS • • Odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 rose to 63% on Polymarket, up 11 points. • • May CPI hit 4.2% annually, a three-year high, driven mostly by energy costs tied to the Iran war. May payrolls added 172,000, beating estimates. • • At its June meeting, the Fed under new Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, and its updated dot plot showed 9 of 18 members projecting at least one hike by year-end, up from a median implying a cut in March. • • The renewed odds move follows this week's escalation in the Iran conflict, including Kuwait's reported missile and drone attack, the resumed US naval blockade, and Trump's comments that strikes will continue.
There is now a 63% chance that Kevin Warsh and the Fed RAISE RATES at some point in 2026 according to Polymarket traders
Kalshi traders see roughly 50% odds of a rate hike in 2026 as Fed is split on policy
Kalshi traders see roughly 50% odds of a rate hike in 2026 as Fed is split on policy
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.