How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
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Market pricing makes 8 the favorite at 61% across 16 tracked outcomes, as of .
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What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
"New York Times": US has attacked more than 170 military targets in Iran in the past two days
Iranians killed in US strikes tonight. Eight in number
My survival: Unfortunately, the United States remains committed to its unilateral vision and its unjustified demands. In the past period, the United States committed crimes in 7 countries.
6 American KC-135R Stratotankers are leaving Europe and flying to the Middl East right now. The airstrikes will continue
Huge US airlift continues today to bases in the Middle East 7 US C-17 transports are airborne from Europe dropping off supplies and air defence, 3 tankers left Qatar headed West in the Mediterranean. The buildup continues at a high tempo...
The US carried out military attacks against a total of seven countries in 2025. Here's what we know
The US carried out military attacks against a total of seven countries in 2025. Here's what we know
The US carried out military attacks against a total of seven countries in 2025. Here's what we know
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.