How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
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Market pricing makes 5.0% the favorite at 11% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: The unemployment rate is back down to its lowest level since June of 2025. Black unemployment, after spiking as high as 8.2 percent as of November 2025, has fallen lower again, to a milder 6.6 percent.
Live: The unemployment rate is back down to its lowest level since June of 2025. Black unemployment, after spiking as high as 8.2 percent as of November 2025, has fallen lower again, to a milder 6.6 percent.
Fed's Goolsbee: Unemployment rate hasn't gone up much
Fed's Goolsbee: Unemployment rate hasn't gone up much
Fed's Goolsbee: Unemployment rate hasn't gone up much
US initial jobless claims 205K versus 215K estimate •
US initial jobless claims 205K versus 215K estimate •
US initial jobless claims 205K versus 215K estimate •
THE SECOND BILL WOULD TRIGGER "AN AUTOMATIC, WHOLE OF GOVERNMENT RESPONSE" IF UNEMPLOYMENT EXCEEDS 5.5% FOR TWO QUARTERS. - AXIOS
THE SECOND BILL WOULD TRIGGER "AN AUTOMATIC, WHOLE OF GOVERNMENT RESPONSE" IF UNEMPLOYMENT EXCEEDS 5.5% FOR TWO QUARTERS. - AXIOS
US weekly jobless claims rise slightly; unemployment rate likely unchanged in February
26% of the 7.5 million unemployed in the US actively searching for work have been looking for more than six months, per FT
[Replying to @cgtnamerica] US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 4% IN 2026-27 - IMF REVIEW >
[Replying to @cgtnamerica] US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 4% IN 2026-27 - IMF REVIEW >
[Replying to @cgtnamerica] US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 4% IN 2026-27 - IMF REVIEW >
[Replying to @cgtnamerica] US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 4% IN 2026-27 - IMF REVIEW >
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 4% IN 2026-27 - IMF REVIEW
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 4% IN 2026-27 - IMF REVIEW
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 4% IN 2026-27 - IMF REVIEW
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO 4% IN 2026-27 - IMF REVIEW
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.