Houthis enter Saudi Arabia
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 21% across 4 tracked outcomes, as of .
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The Houthis warned airlines not to use Saudi Arabian airspace, as it would "become a theater of military operations." At the same time, Yemeni government forces announced the restoration of control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the port city of Mocha on the Red Sea. According to the Yemeni news agency Saba, Mocha was recaptured from the Houthis after fierce fighting. The city is located approximately 74 km north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Following the warning, the Houthis said they would disclaim responsibility for any possible consequences for civil aviation. Earlier, Yemeni authorities announced the launch of Operation Yemen Dawn to recapture Houthi-controlled territories and liberate Sanaa. The Saudi coalition reported that approximately 100 fighter jets were involved in the strikes on Ansar Allah positions, attacking more than 300 targets. More news from IZ RU in MAX [in reply to: Yemeni authorities, with the support of Saudi Arabia, announced the beginning of a military operation to liberate the capital, Sana'a, from the Houthis. The operation is called "Yemen Dawn." Yemeni government authorities also reported regaining control of the Zubab region near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The troops bypassed the Houthi positions from the Kahbub Mountains with the support of Saudi Arabian aircraft. According to Al Arabiya, there was fierce fighting in this area before the capture of Zubab; as a result of the offensive, the Yemeni army was able to almost completely cut off the Houthi supply lines in this area. The day before, it was reported that Saudi Arabian aircraft carried out more than a hundred strikes on the Yemeni capital Sana'a and other regions controlled by the Houthis. The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is of strategic importance for Saudi Arabia: Saudi oil export routes pass through it. The Houthis previously announced their intention to block the passage of the kingdom's tankers. In Yemen, an armed conflict has been raging since 2014 between the Ansar Allah group (Houthis) and government forces backed by Saudi Arabia. In August, Ansar Allah supporters launched an offensive in southwest Yemen and established control over territories with access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. On October 4, Yemeni government forces announced the start of a large-scale military operation to recapture rebel-held territories. More IZ RU news in MAX]
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
"Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Saudi Arabia, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.
The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.
In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Saudi Arabia is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.