Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
Open31as of
Market pricing makes October 10 the favorite at 100% across 31 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
October 6100%
October 7100%
October 10100%
October 897%
October 596%
October 1278%
October 1371%
October 1168%
October 362%
October 1561%
October 1457%
October 1656%
October 1856%
October 1953%
October 251%
October 451%
October 2351%
October 2451%
October 2149%
October 2048%
October 3047%
October 2246%
October 2646%
October 2746%
October 2846%
October 2946%
October 1736%
October 912%
October 2511%
All further outcomes (1 more):
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
The attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh killed 12 people and wounded 309 others. Four Saudi citizens and eight foreigners were among the dead, the country's General Directorate of Civil Aviation said, Al Jazeera reports. The Iranian-backed Houthis, who are fighting against Saudi Arabia, had previously declared all aircraft over the kingdom as targets, except those flying over Mecca and Medina. At least three people were killed in a previous attack on the airport on October 8. The Houthis did not claim responsibility for the new attack, but announced the "closure" of the airport. Trump did not rule out that the United States would join Saudi Arabia's strikes on the Houthis.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.