Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on...?
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Market pricing makes September 25 the favorite at 49% across 13 tracked outcomes, as of .
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The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, affiliated with the pro-Iranian axis, reported that the Houthis carried out an extensive military operation deep inside Saudi Arabia, targeting strategic oil and military facilities, spanning from the Jizan region in the south of the kingdom to the Red Sea port city of Yanbu and the capital Riyadh
The Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar, affiliated with the pro-Iranian axis, reported this morning that early yesterday morning the Houthis carried out a large-scale military operation deep inside Saudi Arabia against strategic and military oil facilities, which spread from the Jizan region in the south of the kingdom to the port city of Yanbu on the Red Sea coast and the capital Riyadh. Informed military sources quoted in the report said that this was in response to the Saudi air force's attacks on markets and bridges in several provinces in Yemen, which led to casualties. The operation, according to the report, was carried out using missiles and drones and included sensitive military sites in the Raqtabah area and the Tunis neighborhood in the capital Riyadh, including the Saudi General Intelligence Headquarters. In addition, installations of the Saudi national oil company Aramco in Jizan and Binbu were attacked. A report in the Lebanese newspaper claimed that the Houthis began examining the French and Greek defense systems stationed in Binbu and the Ta'if region and succeeded in defeating them. Anonymous intelligence sources who spoke to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar added that the Houthis had recently added a number of important sites to their target bank, including data centers that direct Saudi operations in Yemen, command and control centers, and centers for managing joint operations in Yemen.
Houthi rebels attack Saudi Arabian capital and oil facilities; Saudi Arabia hints at "retaliatory" attack; Saudi Arabia intercepts 6 ballistic missiles.
The Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for an attack on the Saudi Arabian capital on Saturday, targeting aviation fuel depots at the local airport. This was Riyadh's first direct attack in months; the group is currently cutting off Saudi Arabia's oil export routes through the Red Sea.
Could be a Saudi strike in retaliation for the Houthi targeting of Riyadh in the past couple days. At the time of writing, it’s unlikely explosions in Sanaa, Yemen are the result of U.S. action.
Could be a Saudi strike in retaliation for the Houthi targeting of Riyadh in the past couple days. At the time of writing, it’s unlikely explosions in Sanaa, Yemen are the result of U.S. action.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Saudi Arabia on the specified date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Saudi Arabia. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Saudi Arabia do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Saudi Arabia” refers to the terrestrial territory of Saudi Arabia, including its internal waters. Saudi Arabia’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Saudi Arabia as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (AST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government and military of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and a consensus of credible reporting.