Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?

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Market pricing makes Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? the favorite at 6%, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

NORussian Media99%match91¢+3%
FWD from IZ.RU • IMPORTANT: A hantavirus outbreak occurred on a cruise ship traveling from Argentina to Cape Verde. Three European passengers have died, and several others are under observation. Symptoms of the disease, which has a mortality rate of up to 50%, have also appeared in people who were not on the cruise and who had been in contact with the cruise ship passengers. What are the symptoms of hantavirus and what danger does it pose? What is hantavirus? Hantaviruses are a family of dangerous pathogens that cause hemorrhagic fever with bleeding and vascular damage. They are divided into two categories: Old World viruses (Europe, Asia) primarily affect the kidneys with a mortality rate of up to 15%, while New World viruses (America) cause pulmonary edema and asphyxiation with a mortality rate of 30–50%. There is no specific treatment, and existing vaccines are ineffective. Hantaviruses are typically transmitted through dust and rodent excrement. However, the Andes virus (South America) is spread through the air from person to person, especially through close contact or caregiving. The incubation period is up to eight weeks, after which severe symptoms develop rapidly. How did the infection occur on the liner? An outbreak of the Andes virus has already claimed at least three lives on the cruise ship MV Hondius, which departed from Ushuaia, Argentina, on April 1. There were approximately 150 people on board, including one Russian citizen. The first to die was a Dutch citizen on April 11, followed by his wife in a Johannesburg hospital. A British citizen later developed a severe form of the disease, and on May 2, a German citizen died on board the ship. The WHO confirmed the outbreak on May 4, noting that the risk of community spread remained low. How did the virus outbreak develop? On May 3, the MV Hondius docked in Cape Verde, but local authorities were unable to ensure proper disembarkation of passengers. The ship was diverted to the Canary Islands, but the archipelago's president refused to accept the vessel due to the threat to the tourism industry. Several infected passengers were evacuated by air ambulance to Switzerland and the Netherlands. A total of eight cases have been confirmed. Later, a flight attendant on a flight from Johannesburg to Amsterdam and a Frenchman traveling with a passenger on the plane developed hantavirus symptoms. An investigation in Argentina revealed that the initial spreaders were a Dutch couple who had traveled by car for four months across the country, Chile, and Uruguay before the cruise. More IZ RU news in MAX
NORussian Media99%match91¢+3%
FWD from IZ.RU • IMPORTANT: A hantavirus outbreak occurred on a cruise ship traveling from Argentina to Cape Verde. Three European passengers have died, and several others are under observation. Symptoms of the disease, which has a mortality rate of up to 50%, have also appeared in people who were not on the cruise and who had been in contact with the cruise ship passengers. What are the symptoms of hantavirus and what danger does it pose? What is hantavirus? Hantaviruses are a family of dangerous pathogens that cause hemorrhagic fever with bleeding and vascular damage. They are divided into two categories: Old World viruses (Europe, Asia) primarily affect the kidneys with a mortality rate of up to 15%, while New World viruses (America) cause pulmonary edema and asphyxiation with a mortality rate of 30–50%. There is no specific treatment, and existing vaccines are ineffective. Hantaviruses are typically transmitted through dust and rodent excrement. However, the Andes virus (South America) is spread through the air from person to person, especially through close contact or caregiving. The incubation period is up to eight weeks, after which severe symptoms develop rapidly. How did the infection occur on the liner? An outbreak of the Andes virus has already claimed at least three lives on the cruise ship MV Hondius, which departed from Ushuaia, Argentina, on April 1. There were approximately 150 people on board, including one Russian citizen. The first to die was a Dutch citizen on April 11, followed by his wife in a Johannesburg hospital. A British citizen later developed a severe form of the disease, and on May 2, a German citizen died on board the ship. The WHO confirmed the outbreak on May 4, noting that the risk of community spread remained low. How did the virus outbreak develop? On May 3, the MV Hondius docked in Cape Verde, but local authorities were unable to ensure proper disembarkation of passengers. The ship was diverted to the Canary Islands, but the archipelago's president refused to accept the vessel due to the threat to the tourism industry. Several infected passengers were evacuated by air ambulance to Switzerland and the Netherlands. A total of eight cases have been confirmed. Later, a flight attendant on a flight from Johannesburg to Amsterdam and a Frenchman traveling with a passenger on the plane developed hantavirus symptoms. An investigation in Argentina revealed that the initial spreaders were a Dutch couple who had traveled by car for four months before the cruise, traveling through the country, Chile, and Uruguay. However, no cases of infection have been reported in Argentina itself. More IZ RU news in MAX
NOfnn.jp99%match91¢+3%
[Explanation] Hantavirus... No vaccine available, fatality rate up to 50%. Human-to-human transmission is anticipated, but "mass infections are rare" and "the possibility of domestic spread is low."
NOVenezuela State-Backed TV99%match91¢+3%
Spain and the WHO inspect cruise ship with hantavirus outbreak that leaves three dead The Spanish Ministry of Health and the World Health Organization (WHO) have agreed to an epidemiological inspection of the MV Hondius cruise ship, which has been affected by a hantavirus outbreak in the Atlantic. The WHO has confirmed seven cases of infection on board, of which three people have died and one is in intensive care in South Africa. A team of epidemiologists will inspect the ship to assess the condition of the 147 passengers and crew members. Hantavirus is a pathogen capable of causing serious diseases such as hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome (HCPS), for which there is currently no vaccine.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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