FL-02 Republican Primary Winner

ResolvedOutcomes14as of

This hub tracks 14 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Austin Rogers100%
Keith Gross0%
Lee Jones0%
Nick Lewis0%
Luke Murphy0%
Jim Norton0%
Evan Power0%
Audie Rowell0%
Candidate A0%
Candidate B0%
Candidate C0%
Candidate D0%
Candidate E0%
Other0%

What moved the odds?

12 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

Evan PowerTheHill Reporter96%match100¢
Among the Republicans Rogers defeated in this primary was current Florida GOP Chairman Evan Power.
Austin Rogerstheguardian.com98%match100¢
Live: A few more House primary results are coming in from Florida: Austin Rogers has won the Republican nomination for U.S. House in Florida’s 2nd congressional distr
Austin RogersAPws98%match100¢
WASHINGTON (AP) — Austin Rogers wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Florida's 2nd Congressional District
Austin Rogersapnews.com98%match100¢
Live: WASHINGTON (AP) — Austin Rogers wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Florida’s 2nd Congressional District
Austin RogersDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match99¢+1%
Decision Desk HQ projects Austin Rogers wins the Florida US House 2 Republican Primary • • #DecisionMade: 8:11 PM EDT
Austin RogersDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match95¢+5%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 55% in): Florida US House 2 Republican Primary • • Austin Rogers (R): 12,567 (27.6%) • Luke Murphy (R): 8,696 (19.1%) • Evan Power (R): 8,052 (17.7%) • Keith Gross (R): 8,051 (17.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Keith GrossDecision Desk (DDHQ)97%match96¢+4%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 55% in): Florida US House 2 Republican Primary • • Austin Rogers (R): 12,567 (27.6%) • Luke Murphy (R): 8,696 (19.1%) • Evan Power (R): 8,052 (17.7%) • Keith Gross (R): 8,051 (17.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Luke MurphyDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match97¢+3%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 55% in): Florida US House 2 Republican Primary • • Austin Rogers (R): 12,567 (27.6%) • Luke Murphy (R): 8,696 (19.1%) • Evan Power (R): 8,052 (17.7%) • Keith Gross (R): 8,051 (17.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Evan PowerDecision Desk (DDHQ)98%match98¢+2%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 55% in): Florida US House 2 Republican Primary • • Austin Rogers (R): 12,567 (27.6%) • Luke Murphy (R): 8,696 (19.1%) • Evan Power (R): 8,052 (17.7%) • Keith Gross (R): 8,051 (17.7%) • • Follow more results here: •
Luke MurphyDecision Desk (DDHQ)96%match19¢-100%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 31% in): Florida US House 2 Republican Primary • • Luke Murphy (R): 5,873 (22.4%) • Austin Rogers (R): 5,541 (21.2%) • Evan Power (R): 4,818 (18.4%) • Keith Gross (R): 4,690 (17.9%) • • Follow more results here: •
Luke MurphyDecision Desk (DDHQ)96%match15¢-100%
DDHQ Race Update (est. 18% in): Florida US House 2 Republican Primary • • Luke Murphy (R): 3,555 (23.3%) • Evan Power (R): 3,188 (20.9%) • Austin Rogers (R): 2,968 (19.4%) • Keith Gross (R): 2,842 (18.6%) • • Follow more results here: •
Austin RogersFox Reporter96%match24¢+317%
Inbox: House Majority Whip Tom Emmer endorsed former Senate GOP staffer Austin Rogers in the crowded Republican primary to replace retiring Rep. Neal Dunn in FL-02

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Related events