Fed Decision in January?
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Market pricing makes No change the favorite at 55% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
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What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: Stocks closed lower for the day, with the S&P 500 off 0.4 percent, the Nasdaq Composite inching lower and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1 percent. The move comes lower in stocks came as investors priced in higher interest rates, with investors now anticipating three further quarter point interest rate increases through 2027. The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to change in interest rates, rose 0.6 percentage points. Importantly, Warsh’s commitment, and follow-through, to tackle inflation helped cool worries of rising prices becoming embedded for the long-term. The 30-year Treasury yield nudged lower to 5.35 percent.
What is this event about?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.