Fed Decision in December?
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Market pricing makes 25 bps increase the favorite at 80% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
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What moved the odds?
19 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: Ahead of today’s jobs numbers, investors are betting on the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady at its next meeting in October before raising them another quarter of a percentage point at its meeting in December. Those bets could change depending on the numbers that come out today.
Citigroup: Expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in October and December, and resume rate cuts in June 2027.
HSBC: High US inflation and a strong economy suggest the Fed will raise rates by another 25 basis points in December.
HSBC estimates the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points in December, but will remain on hold throughout 2027. Taiwan's AI momentum continues to be strong.
Is the Fed's first rate hike in three years not over yet? Three major banks estimate another 25 basis point increase in December.
Is the Fed's first rate hike in three years not over yet? Three major banks estimate another 25 basis point increase in December.
STANDARD CHARTERED EXPECTS US FED TO DELIVER A 25 BP RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER 2026 VS PRIOR FORECAST OF NO POLICY CHANGE THIS YEAR
Standard Chartered Expects US Fed to Deliver a 25 Bp Rate Hike in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of No Policy Change This Year
Live: Stocks closed lower for the day, with the S&P 500 off 0.4 percent, the Nasdaq Composite inching lower and the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1 percent. The move comes lower in stocks came as investors priced in higher interest rates, with investors now anticipating three further quarter point interest rate increases through 2027. The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to change in interest rates, rose 0.6 percentage points. Importantly, Warsh’s commitment, and follow-through, to tackle inflation helped cool worries of rising prices becoming embedded for the long-term. The 30-year Treasury yield nudged lower to 5.35 percent.
Live: The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, also rose sharply, moving from a drop of 0.05 percentage points for the day before Warsh began talking, to a gain of roughly 0.05 percentage points, as investors increased bets for higher interest rates in the future. Investors are now pricing in a further three increases to interest rates through 2027, with the next expected to come in December.
Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos said central-bank watchers now overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates this week and then hike again before the end of 2026.
Morgan Stanley Expects US Fed To Hike Interest Rates By 25 BPs Each In September And December Vs Prior Forecast Of No Policy Change This Year
Morgan Stanley Expects US Fed to Hike Interest Rates by 25 Bps Each in September and December vs Prior Forecast of No Policy Change This Year
HSBC Expects US Fed to Hike Interest Rates by 25 Bps Each in September and December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of No Policy Change
UBS Expects The Fed To Hike In September & December, Vs. Unchanged Previously • • UBS has changed its Fed rate call. Chief US economist Jonathan Pingle expects the Fed to raise rates on Sept. 16 by 25bp to a range of 3.75-4.00%, and then to raise again on Dec. 9 to 4.00-4.25%. Jonathan’s decision to change his call from unchanged at both meetings relates to both Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and then last Friday’s strong 162k payrolls report. Jonathan notes that very much depends on August CPI this Friday coming. He also noted that knowledge of Warsh’s reaction function continues to evolve.
UBS Global Wealth Management Expects US Fed to Deliver 25 Bp Rate Hikes Each in September and December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of No Policy Change
U.S. rate futures price in 28bps of Fed hikes by December, down from 32bps before the U.S. nonfarm payrolls release. (
U.S. rate futures price in 28bps of Fed hikes by December, down from 32bps before the U.S. nonfarm payrolls release. (
U.S. rate futures price in 28bps of Fed hikes by December, down from 32bps before the U.S. nonfarm payrolls release. (
What is this event about?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.