Evo Morales arrested
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
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4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Evo Morales filed a request for protective measures with the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR), alleging threats to his physical safety under the government of Rodrigo Paz. What measures could the IACHR order to protect the former Bolivian president? Click the link for details #EvoMorales #Bolivia #11Sep
Bolivia: Prosecutors order the arrest of former president Evo Morales
Bolivia on alert for possible arrest of former president Evo Morales. Coca growers' leader warns of uprising if former president Evo Morales is arrested. Court issued arrest warrant for alleged human trafficking; defense denounces persecution. Social sectors are expected to mobilize. What will the outcome be?
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.