ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
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Market pricing makes No change the favorite at 93% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
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POLL-Reuters ECB October pre-meeting poll results(XLS)
POLL-Reuters ECB October pre-meeting poll results(XLS)
POLL-Reuters ECB October pre-meeting poll results(XLS)
POLL-Reuters ECB October pre-meeting poll results(XLS)
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2.50% on October 29, Said 70 of 73 Economists
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2.50% on October 29, Said 70 of 73 Economists
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2.50% on October 29, Said 70 of 73 Economists
Reuters Poll-ECB to Hold Deposit Rate at 2.50% on October 29, Said 70 of 73 Economists
[UPDATE] Expectations of an early ECB interest rate hike recede as political turmoil continues, pushing the euro to its lowest level in 1 year and 5 months (first reported at 2026-10-05T19:30:36.942231600Z)
[UPDATE] Expectations of an early ECB interest rate hike recede as political turmoil continues, pushing the euro to its lowest level in 1 year and 5 months (first reported at 2026-10-05T19:30:36.942231600Z)
Standard Chartered Expects ECB to Deliver a 25 Bp Rate Cut in Q4 2027 vs Prior Forecast of Q3
A surge in European bond spreads has prompted markets to bet on the European Central Bank reducing the number of interest rate hikes.
A surge in European bond spreads has prompted markets to bet on the European Central Bank reducing the number of interest rate hikes.
*TRADERS PARE ECB BETS, SEE LESS THAN 40% CHANCE OF OCTOBER HIKE
*TRADERS PARE ECB BETS, SEE LESS THAN 40% CHANCE OF OCTOBER HIKE
BofA Global Research Expects ECB to Deliver a 25bp Hike in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of No Policy Change
BofA Global Research Expects ECB to Deliver a 25bp Hike in December 2026 vs Prior Forecast of No Policy Change
25 bps increaseExpectativa do mercado é de que a inflação brasileira encerre o ano em 4,92%; PIB e Selic apresentaram queda nas projeções, indo para 1,88% e 13,50%, nesta ordem 93%match55¢+71%
The market raises its inflation forecast for 2026 and anticipates another interest rate cut.
JP Morgan Expects ECB to Deliver Another 25 Bp Interest Rate Hike in March 2027 After a December Hike vs Prior Forecast of Rates on Hold in 2027
JP Morgan Expects ECB to Deliver Another 25 Bp Interest Rate Hike in March 2027 After a December Hike vs Prior Forecast of Rates on Hold in 2027
JP Morgan Expects ECB to Deliver Another 25 Bp Interest Rate Hike in March 2027 After a December Hike vs Prior Forecast of Rates on Hold in 2027
JP Morgan Expects ECB to Deliver Another 25 Bp Interest Rate Hike in March 2027 After a December Hike vs Prior Forecast of Rates on Hold in 2027
Traders Now Fully Price In Four 25bp ECB Rate Hikes By End-2027
Traders Now Fully Price In Four 25bp ECB Rate Hikes By End-2027
Traders Now Fully Price In Four 25bp ECB Rate Hikes By End-2027
European economic affairs researcher Ryan Rasoul: The European Central Bank's interest rate hike was expected, with a likely pause in increases this year and next. Future interest rate decisions will depend on economic data, with continued caution. Geopolitical risks and the demand for financing are raising borrowing costs for companies and individuals exposed to inflationary pressures and rising energy prices. The European Central Bank maintains its decision-making independence to focus on price stability. The European economy has shown unexpected resilience, enabling it to raise its growth forecasts, while inflation is expected to remain far from the target until 2028. @NaserElTibi
@Nadine_bn #ClosingBell
#Arabic_Business
European economic affairs researcher Ryan Rasoul: The European Central Bank's interest rate hike was expected, with a likely pause in increases this year and next. Future interest rate decisions will depend on economic data, with continued caution. Geopolitical risks and the demand for financing are raising borrowing costs for companies and individuals exposed to inflationary pressures and rising energy prices. The European Central Bank maintains its decision-making independence to focus on price stability. The European economy has shown unexpected resilience, enabling it to raise its growth forecasts, while inflation is expected to remain far from the target until 2028. @NaserElTibi
@Nadine_bn #ClosingBell
#Arabic_Business
UBS Global Wealth Management Expects ECB to Deliver One Further 25bps Rate Hike in December 2026 Before Pausing
The sell-off in European bonds extended after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned of inflation risks, adding to ongoing concerns about rising energy prices. The yield on Germany's 10-year bond rose 6 basis points to 3.50%, its highest level since 2009. The yield on 2-year bonds climbed as much as 14 basis points to 3.21%, its highest level in nearly three years. Swaps are now fully pricing in three further interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each by the middle of next year, with a probability of a rate increase next month estimated at over 70%. #Arabic_Business
The sell-off in European bonds extended after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned of inflation risks, adding to ongoing concerns about rising energy prices. The yield on Germany's 10-year bond rose 6 basis points to 3.50%, its highest level since 2009. The yield on 2-year bonds climbed as much as 14 basis points to 3.21%, its highest level in nearly three years. Swaps are now fully pricing in three further interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each by the middle of next year, with a probability of a rate increase next month estimated at over 70%. #Arabic_Business
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28-29, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.