Dems' best tossup Senate race?
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Market pricing makes Michigan the favorite at 32% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
DDHQ FORECAST UPDATE: In the last week, the DDHQ Forecast for Iowa's Senate race has shifted 7 points towards the Democrats. • • Republican Ashley Hinson is now at a 52% probability to win, and the race is listed as a Toss Up.
FORECAST UPDATE: Democrats favored to flip the Senate • • Decision Desk HQ's latest model shows Democrats leading in almost every swing state, with five seats currently forecasted to flip: • • → North Carolina: 77% D • → Alaska: 59% D • â†... FORECAST UPDATE: Democrats favored to flip the Senate • • Decision Desk HQ's latest model shows Democrats leading in almost every swing state, with five seats currently forecasted to flip: • • → North Carolina: 77% D • → Alaska: 59% D • → Texas: 55% D • → Ohio: 54% D • → Maine: 53% D
What is this event about?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.