Core PCE MoM - June 2026
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Inflation cooled in June, with the Federal Reserve's preferred price gauge easing more than expected as policymakers continue their push to get inflation back to 2%. • • New Commerce Department data showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 3.7% from a year ago, while core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, slowed to 3.3%. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose just 0.1%, cooler than economists had expected. • • The latest report comes one day after the Fed held interest rates steady, with inflation still running above its long-term target despite showing signs of cooling.
Inflation cooled in June, with the Federal Reserve's preferred price gauge easing more than expected as policymakers continue their push to get inflation back to 2%. • • New Commerce Department data showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 3.7% from a year ago, while core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, slowed to 3.3%. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose just 0.1%, cooler than economists had expected. • • The latest report comes one day after the Fed held interest rates steady, with inflation still running above its long-term target despite showing signs of cooling.
Inflation cooled in June, with the Federal Reserve's preferred price gauge easing more than expected as policymakers continue their push to get inflation back to 2%. • • New Commerce Department data showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index rose 3.7% from a year ago, while core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, slowed to 3.3%. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose just 0.1%, cooler than economists had expected. • • The latest report comes one day after the Fed held interest rates steady, with inflation still running above its long-term target despite showing signs of cooling.
Forecasters who transpose the PPI and CPI into the PCE expect a mild core reading for June at +0.18% (+3.3% y/y), which would be the lowest monthly print since Nov. • • Headline PCE is expected to decline -0.07% for June, lowering the 12-month rate to 3.7%
Forecasters who transpose the PPI and CPI into the PCE expect a mild core reading for June at +0.18% (+3.3% y/y), which would be the lowest monthly print since Nov. • • Headline PCE is expected to decline -0.07% for June, lowering the 12-month rate to 3.7%
Forecasters who transpose the PPI and CPI into the PCE expect a mild core reading for June at +0.18% (+3.3% y/y), which would be the lowest monthly print since Nov. • • Headline PCE is expected to decline -0.07% for June, lowering the 12-month rate to 3.7%
What is this event about?
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending June 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in June 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for June 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on July 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.