Core CPI YoY - July 2026

ResolvedOutcomes10as of

This hub tracks 10 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

2.5%100%
≤2.2%0%
2.3%0%
2.4%0%
2.6%0%
2.7%0%
2.8%0%
2.9%0%
3.0%0%
≥3.1%0%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

2.5%White House Rapid Response91%match100¢
John Lonski: "It is good news! And I could not help but note that the annual rate of core CPI inflation... 2.5% in July. That’s back to where it was prior to the start of the Iran conflict."
2.5%White House Rapid Response91%match100¢
John Lonski: "It is good news! And I could not help but note that the annual rate of core CPI inflation... 2.5% in July. That’s back to where it was prior to the a start of the Iran conflict."
2.9%Walter Bloomberg94%match100¢
CPI COOLS — FED HOLD STILL FAVORED • • July inflation showed little cause for alarm: • • Headline CPI: +0.1% M/M | +3.4% Y/Y • Core CPI: +0.2% M/M | +2.5% Y/Y • Energy: -1.5% • • Prediction markets still favor the Fed holding rates in September at 68.2%, versus 17% for a 25bp cut and 9.6% for a hike. • • For now, hold remains the base case. •
3.0%Walter Bloomberg94%match100¢
CPI COOLS — FED HOLD STILL FAVORED • • July inflation showed little cause for alarm: • • Headline CPI: +0.1% M/M | +3.4% Y/Y • Core CPI: +0.2% M/M | +2.5% Y/Y • Energy: -1.5% • • Prediction markets still favor the Fed holding rates in September at 68.2%, versus 17% for a 25bp cut and 9.6% for a hike. • • For now, hold remains the base case. •
2.5%livesquawk94%match100¢
Core CPI was +0.22% in July, lowering the 12-month change to 2.5%
≤2.2%livesquawk94%match100¢
Core CPI was +0.22% in July, lowering the 12-month change to 2.5%
2.3%livesquawk94%match100¢
Core CPI was +0.22% in July, lowering the 12-month change to 2.5%
2.4%livesquawk93%match100¢
Core CPI was +0.22% in July, lowering the 12-month change to 2.5%
2.5%Nick Timiraos, WSJ94%match100¢
Core CPI was +0.22% in July, lowering the 12-month change to 2.5%
≤2.2%Nick Timiraos, WSJ94%match100¢
Core CPI was +0.22% in July, lowering the 12-month change to 2.5%
2.3%Nick Timiraos, WSJ94%match100¢
Core CPI was +0.22% in July, lowering the 12-month change to 2.5%
2.4%Nick Timiraos, WSJ93%match100¢
Core CPI was +0.22% in July, lowering the 12-month change to 2.5%
2.3%livesquawk92%match100¢
US Core Unrounded CPI (M/M): 0.215% (prev -0.017%) • - Core Unrounded CPI (Y/Y) July: 2.478% (prev 2.594%)
2.4%livesquawk92%match100¢
US Core Unrounded CPI (M/M): 0.215% (prev -0.017%) • - Core Unrounded CPI (Y/Y) July: 2.478% (prev 2.594%)
2.8%livesquawk92%match100¢
US Core Unrounded CPI (M/M): 0.215% (prev -0.017%) • - Core Unrounded CPI (Y/Y) July: 2.478% (prev 2.594%)
3.0%nytimes.com94%match100¢
Live: The numbers are out! Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in July and were up 3.4 percent from a year earlier. “Core” prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.2 percent from June and 2.5 percent over the past 12 months.
2.5%News96%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in July (Reuters forecast 2.5% rise).
2.3%News95%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in July (Reuters forecast 2.5% rise).
2.4%News95%match99¢+1%
US core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in July (Reuters forecast 2.5% rise).
2.7%News95%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in July (Reuters forecast 2.5% rise).
2.8%News95%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in July (Reuters forecast 2.5% rise).
2.9%News95%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.5% year-on-year in July (Reuters forecast 2.5% rise).
2.5%News94%match100¢
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
2.3%News93%match76¢+32%
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
2.4%News93%match32¢+213%
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
2.7%News93%match99¢+1%
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
2.8%News93%match100¢
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
2.9%News93%match100¢
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
2.5%dbnews94%match100¢
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
2.3%dbnews93%match76¢+32%
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%

What is this event about?

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

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