Core CPI YoY - August 2026

ResolvedOutcomes10as of

This hub tracks 10 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

2.4%100%
≤2.0%0%
2.1%0%
2.2%0%
2.3%0%
2.5%0%
2.6%0%
2.7%0%
2.8%0%
≥2.9%0%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

2.8%Nick Timiraos, WSJ91%match100¢
Core services ex-housing rose 0.51% in the August CPI, the highest reading since January and up 3% on the year. • • Core goods was +0.11% (+0.7% on the year) • • Shelter was +0.26% (+3% on the year)
≥2.9%Nick Timiraos, WSJ91%match0¢
Core services ex-housing rose 0.51% in the August CPI, the highest reading since January and up 3% on the year. • • Core goods was +0.11% (+0.7% on the year) • • Shelter was +0.26% (+3% on the year)
≥2.9%Walter Bloomberg93%match100¢
US CPI: Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected • • August US inflation data delivered a firmer-than-expected headline reading, adding another complication to the Federal Reserve outlook. • • Headline CPI rose 0.396% M/M on an unrounded basis, effectively 0.4%, compared with expectations of around 0.39%. • • The bigger surprise came from core CPI, which increased 0.290% M/M, versus expectations of around 0.22% and up from 0.215% in the previous month. • • On a year-over-year basis: • • Headline CPI: 3.397% • Core CPI: 2.446%, down from 2.478% previously • • The composition is important. Headline inflation is running above 3%, while monthly core inflation accelerated materially. That combination makes the path toward easier monetary policy more difficult, particularly against a backdrop of elevated energy prices and geopolitical risk.
2.3%livesquawk91%match100¢
US Core Unrounded CPI (M/M) Aug: 0.29% (prev 0.215%) • - Core Unrounded CPI (Y/Y): 2.446% (prev 2.478%)
2.8%livesquawk92%match100¢
US Core Unrounded CPI (M/M) Aug: 0.29% (prev 0.215%) • - Core Unrounded CPI (Y/Y): 2.446% (prev 2.478%)
≥2.9%livesquawk91%match100¢
US Core Unrounded CPI (M/M) Aug: 0.29% (prev 0.215%) • - Core Unrounded CPI (Y/Y): 2.446% (prev 2.478%)
2.3%Nick Timiraos, WSJ97%match100¢
Core CPI was firmer than expected in August, rising 0.29% on the month (3.5% annualized) • • The three-month annualized rate was 2% (previous month: 1.6%). • • The six-month annualized rate rose to 2.6% from 2.4%. • • The 12-month change barely rounded down to 2.4% from 2.5%.
2.4%News96%match99¢+1%
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August (Reuters forecast 2.4% increase).
2.2%News95%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August (Reuters forecast 2.4% increase).
2.3%News95%match99¢+1%
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August (Reuters forecast 2.4% increase).
2.6%News94%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August (Reuters forecast 2.4% increase).
2.7%News95%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August (Reuters forecast 2.4% increase).
2.8%News95%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August (Reuters forecast 2.4% increase).
2.4%Walter Bloomberg93%match100¢
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
2.2%Walter Bloomberg93%match100¢
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
2.3%Walter Bloomberg92%match99¢+1%
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
2.7%Walter Bloomberg92%match100¢
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
2.8%Walter Bloomberg93%match100¢
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
≥2.9%Walter Bloomberg92%match100¢
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
2.4%cls.cn97%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August, in line with market expectations.
2.1%cls.cn96%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August, in line with market expectations.
2.2%cls.cn96%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August, in line with market expectations.
2.3%cls.cn96%match99¢+1%
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August, in line with market expectations.
2.6%cls.cn96%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August, in line with market expectations.
2.8%cls.cn96%match100¢
US core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in August, in line with market expectations.
2.4%News93%match100¢
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
2.2%News93%match100¢
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
2.3%News92%match99¢+1%
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
2.7%News92%match100¢
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%
2.8%News93%match100¢
*US AUG. CORE CPI RISES 2.4% Y/Y; EST. +2.4%

What is this event about?

This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.