Core CPI MoM - July 2026

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This hub tracks 7 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

0.2%100%
≤0.0%0%
0.1%0%
0.3%0%
0.4%0%
0.5%0%
0.6%+0%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

0.2%Nick Timiraos, WSJ96%match100¢
Core goods prices rose 0.20% in July in the CPI, following two months of declines. This was the largest month-over-month rise since Sept 2025. • • Shelter was soft, +0.14%. • • Core services ex-shelter was +0.19% (the price level was below May's because of a larger June decline).
0.1%Nick Timiraos, WSJ95%match100¢
Core goods prices rose 0.20% in July in the CPI, following two months of declines. This was the largest month-over-month rise since Sept 2025. • • Shelter was soft, +0.14%. • • Core services ex-shelter was +0.19% (the price level was below May's because of a larger June decline).
0.3%Nick Timiraos, WSJ96%match100¢
Core goods prices rose 0.20% in July in the CPI, following two months of declines. This was the largest month-over-month rise since Sept 2025. • • Shelter was soft, +0.14%. • • Core services ex-shelter was +0.19% (the price level was below May's because of a larger June decline).
0.4%Nick Timiraos, WSJ95%match100¢
Core goods prices rose 0.20% in July in the CPI, following two months of declines. This was the largest month-over-month rise since Sept 2025. • • Shelter was soft, +0.14%. • • Core services ex-shelter was +0.19% (the price level was below May's because of a larger June decline).
0.5%Nick Timiraos, WSJ95%match100¢
Core goods prices rose 0.20% in July in the CPI, following two months of declines. This was the largest month-over-month rise since Sept 2025. • • Shelter was soft, +0.14%. • • Core services ex-shelter was +0.19% (the price level was below May's because of a larger June decline).
0.6%+Nick Timiraos, WSJ95%match100¢
Core goods prices rose 0.20% in July in the CPI, following two months of declines. This was the largest month-over-month rise since Sept 2025. • • Shelter was soft, +0.14%. • • Core services ex-shelter was +0.19% (the price level was below May's because of a larger June decline).
0.2%theguardian.com92%match100¢
Live: Core inflation, which measures prices without volatile goods like food and gas, rose by 0.2% in July , after not really changing in June compared to the month p
0.3%theguardian.com91%match100¢
Live: Core inflation, which measures prices without volatile goods like food and gas, rose by 0.2% in July , after not really changing in June compared to the month p
0.3%Walter Bloomberg94%match99¢+1%
CPI COOLS — FED HOLD STILL FAVORED • • July inflation showed little cause for alarm: • • Headline CPI: +0.1% M/M | +3.4% Y/Y • Core CPI: +0.2% M/M | +2.5% Y/Y • Energy: -1.5% • • Prediction markets still favor the Fed holding rates in September at 68.2%, versus 17% for a 25bp cut and 9.6% for a hike. • • For now, hold remains the base case. •
0.5%livesquawk93%match100¢
Core CPI was +0.22% in July, lowering the 12-month change to 2.5%
0.5%Nick Timiraos, WSJ93%match100¢
Core CPI was +0.22% in July, lowering the 12-month change to 2.5%
0.3%livesquawk92%match99¢+1%
US Core Unrounded CPI (M/M): 0.215% (prev -0.017%) • - Core Unrounded CPI (Y/Y) July: 2.478% (prev 2.594%)
0.5%livesquawk92%match100¢
US Core Unrounded CPI (M/M): 0.215% (prev -0.017%) • - Core Unrounded CPI (Y/Y) July: 2.478% (prev 2.594%)
0.2%nytimes.com94%match99¢+1%
Live: The numbers are out! Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in July and were up 3.4 percent from a year earlier. “Core” prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.2 percent from June and 2.5 percent over the past 12 months.
0.1%nytimes.com94%match99¢+1%
Live: The numbers are out! Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in July and were up 3.4 percent from a year earlier. “Core” prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.2 percent from June and 2.5 percent over the past 12 months.
0.3%nytimes.com95%match99¢+1%
Live: The numbers are out! Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in July and were up 3.4 percent from a year earlier. “Core” prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.2 percent from June and 2.5 percent over the past 12 months.
0.4%nytimes.com94%match100¢
Live: The numbers are out! Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in July and were up 3.4 percent from a year earlier. “Core” prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.2 percent from June and 2.5 percent over the past 12 months.
0.5%nytimes.com94%match100¢
Live: The numbers are out! Consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in July and were up 3.4 percent from a year earlier. “Core” prices, excluding food and energy, were up 0.2 percent from June and 2.5 percent over the past 12 months.
0.2%News94%match99¢+1%
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2%
0.3%News92%match99¢+1%
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2%
0.4%News92%match100¢
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2%
0.2%Walter Bloomberg91%match99¢+1%
*US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.1% • *US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 3.4% Y/Y; EST. +3.4% • • *US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2% • *US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
0.3%Walter Bloomberg91%match99¢+1%
*US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.1% • *US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 3.4% Y/Y; EST. +3.4% • • *US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2% • *US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
0.4%Walter Bloomberg91%match100¢
*US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.1% M/M; EST. +0.1% • *US JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 3.4% Y/Y; EST. +3.4% • • *US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2% • *US JULY CORE CPI RISES 2.5% Y/Y; EST. +2.5%
0.2%News95%match100¢
US core CPI rose 0.2% in July compared to the previous month (Reuters forecast a 0.2% increase).
0.3%News94%match99¢+1%
US core CPI rose 0.2% in July compared to the previous month (Reuters forecast a 0.2% increase).
0.5%News94%match100¢
US core CPI rose 0.2% in July compared to the previous month (Reuters forecast a 0.2% increase).
0.2%dbnews94%match95¢+5%
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2%
0.3%dbnews92%match96¢+4%
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2%
0.4%dbnews92%match100¢
*US JULY CORE CPI RISES 0.2% M/M; EST. +0.2%

What is this event about?

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in July 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month). The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

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