Closest Governor's Race?
Resolved18as of
This hub tracks 18 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Other competitive states: • Ohio: (51% R) • Nevada: (56% R) • Alaska: (61% R) • Florida: (61% R) • New Hampshire: (66% R) • Arizona: (69% D) • Wisconsin: (71%) • Michigan: (73% D) • • Find our full forecast on Votes:
Other competitive states: • Ohio: (51% R) • Nevada: (56% R) • Alaska: (61% R) • Florida: (61% R) • New Hampshire: (66% R) • Arizona: (69% D) • Wisconsin: (71%) • Michigan: (73% D) • • Find our full forecast on Votes:
What is this event about?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose name comes first alphabetically.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.