China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
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Market pricing makes 4.3-4.6% the favorite at 42% across 9 tracked outcomes, as of .
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What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
MORGAN STANLEY CUTS CHINA GDP FORECAST • • Morgan Stanley lowered its 2026 China GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.8% after weaker-than-expected June activity. • • The bank cited slowing infrastructure spending, softer consumer demand and continued property weakness. It expects policy support to stay focused on AI and energy infrastructure rather than consumption, while still forecasting modest growth improvement in the second half.
MORGAN STANLEY CUTS CHINA GDP FORECAST • • Morgan Stanley lowered its 2026 China GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.8% after weaker-than-expected June activity. • • The bank cited slowing infrastructure spending, softer consumer demand and continued property weakness. It expects policy support to stay focused on AI and energy infrastructure rather than consumption, while still forecasting modest growth improvement in the second half.
MORGAN STANLEY CUTS CHINA GDP FORECAST • • Morgan Stanley lowered its 2026 China GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.8% after weaker-than-expected June activity. • • The bank cited slowing infrastructure spending, softer consumer demand and continued property weakness. It expects policy support to stay focused on AI and energy infrastructure rather than consumption, while still forecasting modest growth improvement in the second half.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html