Canada GDP: June 2026 (MoM)

ResolvedOutcomes6as of

This hub tracks 6 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

0.2-0.3%livesquawk92%match33¢-100%
Canada Retail Sales (M/M) June: 0.6% (est 0.4%; prev 1.0%; prev R 1.1%) • - Retail Sales Ex-Autos (M/M): 0.5% (est 0.3%; prev 1.2%)
<0.0%livesquawk92%match97¢+3%
Canada Retail Sales (M/M) June: 0.6% (est 0.4%; prev 1.0%; prev R 1.1%) • - Retail Sales Ex-Autos (M/M): 0.5% (est 0.3%; prev 1.2%)
0.0-0.1%livesquawk92%match77¢+30%
Canada Retail Sales (M/M) June: 0.6% (est 0.4%; prev 1.0%; prev R 1.1%) • - Retail Sales Ex-Autos (M/M): 0.5% (est 0.3%; prev 1.2%)
0.6-0.7%livesquawk92%match1¢-100%
Canada Retail Sales (M/M) June: 0.6% (est 0.4%; prev 1.0%; prev R 1.1%) • - Retail Sales Ex-Autos (M/M): 0.5% (est 0.3%; prev 1.2%)

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to Canada’s gross domestic product growth rate over the one-month period ending June 2026 (Real GDP monthly change, %), as reported by Statistics Canada’s (StatCan) “Gross domestic product by industry” release for June 2026, scheduled for release on August 28, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics are expected to be made available here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/ind1-eng.htm If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified month’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior month. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior month to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following month or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3569.

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