Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rio Grande do Sul
Open40as of
Market pricing makes Flavio Bolsonaro the favorite at 82% across 40 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Candidate J50%
Candidate K50%
Candidate L50%
Candidate M50%
Candidate N50%
Candidate O50%
Candidate P50%
Candidate Q50%
Candidate R50%
Candidate S50%
Candidate T50%
Candidate U50%
Candidate V50%
Candidate W50%
Candidate X50%
Candidate Y50%
Candidate Z50%
Other50%
Lula18%
Samara0%
All further outcomes (10 more):
Zema · Candidate A · Candidate B · Candidate C · Candidate D · Candidate E · Candidate F · Candidate G · Candidate H · Candidate I
What moved the odds?
A complete combined signal timeline is unavailable. The outcome odds above remain current to the stated time.
What is this event about?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio Grande do Sul.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio Grande do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).