Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco

OpenOutcomes40as of

This hub tracks 40 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Lula100%

What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Flavio Bolsonarofrance24.com96%match1¢-100%
Presidential election in Brazil: how to explain Flavio Bolsonaro's success against incumbent Lula?
Flavio Bolsonaroafp98%match1¢-100%
Bolsonaro edges past Lula as Brazil vote goes to run-off • • Right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro pulled off a surprise first-place finish ahead of leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Sunday's Brazilian election, receiving 47% of the votes to the incumbent's 45%. The two candidates will face off again in a 25 October run-off
#Opinion by: Emir Sader | Lula has a very good chance of winning →

What is this event about?

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).