Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Pernambuco
Open40as of
Market pricing makes Lula the favorite at 96% across 40 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Lula96%
Candidate A50%
Candidate B50%
Candidate C50%
Candidate D50%
Candidate K50%
Candidate L50%
Candidate M50%
Candidate N50%
Candidate O50%
Candidate P50%
Candidate V50%
Candidate W50%
Candidate E50%
Candidate F50%
Candidate G50%
Candidate H50%
Candidate I50%
Candidate J50%
Candidate Q50%
Candidate R50%
Samara0%
Zema0%
All further outcomes (10 more):
Candidate S · Candidate T · Candidate U · Clariana Barao · Edmilson Costa · Escritor Augusto Cury · Candidate X · Candidate Y · Candidate Z · Other
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
#Opinion by: Emir Sader | Lula has a very good chance of winning →
What is this event about?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Pernambuco, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Pernambuco.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Pernambuco. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).