Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Amazonas
Open40as of
This hub tracks 40 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
All further outcomes (10 more):
Candidate R · Candidate S · Candidate T · Candidate U · Candidate V · Candidate W · Candidate X · Candidate Y · Candidate Z · Other
What moved the odds?
16 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle: elected Senator tonight. • • Jair Bolsonaro's son, Carlos: elected Senator. • • Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Renan: elected Congressman. • • Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Flavio, currently a Senator: ahead of Lula, headed toward a run-off for President. • • Jair Bolsonaro's other son, Eduardo: leaving Congress, in the US, facing arrest and imprisonment if he returns. • • Jair Bolsonaro: imprisoned at home for 28 years.
In Brazil, Bolsonaro's son came out on top in the first round, while for the past year, Donald Trump, with Meta's help, has been relentlessly trying to influence the election to support him against Lula. Everywhere, democracies must unite to counter authoritarian imperialism.
'Right-wing' Bolsonaro pulls in upset victory in Brazilian presidential election... faces 'left-wing' Lula in runoff.
Brazil's Flavio Bolsonaro turns scandal into poll gains
Brazil’s Lula announces higher welfare payments and free weight-loss jabs ahead of election
Brazilian presidential election: Flavio Bolsonaro under investigation for corruption
Revelations that Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption and money laundering rocked his right-wing campaign Friday, weeks before elections.
Live: #BRAZIL As the presidential election approaches in Brazil, conservative candidate Flavio Bolsonaro claims he has "nothing to hide" after the revelation of a corruption investigation targeting him...
Brazil: In the midst of his presidential campaign, Flavio Bolsonaro is the target of a corruption investigation
Corruption probe targets Brazil presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro
Brazil president candidate Flavio Bolsonaro targeted in corruption probe
Live: #BRAZIL Conservative Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, one of the frontrunners in the Brazilian presidential election, is the subject of a corruption and money laundering investigation, according to a court document made public today, unless...
Caiado (PSD - Social Democratic Party) 3%; Zema (New Party) 2%; Renan Santos (Mission) 3%; Samara Martins (UP - Popular Unity) 1%. Undecided: 10%.
Brazil's Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has suspended the presidential campaign of Renan Santos, of the Missão party, and his vice-presidential candidate, Aroldo Medina, for the mass dissemination of content through undeclared profiles. Their campaign materials and participation in debates have been banned. Comment. #teleSUR #Brazil #Elections
I hope that candidate Renan Santos will reinstate his candidacy. President @jairbolsonaro has had his social media accounts blocked for over a year, and censorship can no longer be trivialized in Brazil!
Author-psychiatrist Augusto Cury gains ground in Brazil presidential race polls
What is this event about?
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).