Berlin State Election: 2nd Place

OpenOutcomes24as of

Market pricing makes Party A the favorite at 50% across 24 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

CDU37%
AfD29%
SPD4%
FDP0%
FW0%
BSW0%

What moved the odds?

18 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

CDUwelt.de93%match38¢-3%
AfD significantly widens gap with CDU/CSU in poll – Greens and SPD mathematically secure seats in state parliament
AfDwelt.de94%match68¢+4%
AfD significantly widens gap with CDU/CSU in poll – Greens and SPD mathematically secure seats in state parliament
SPDwelt.de97%match97¢-1%
Berlin election: Left Party suddenly clearly ahead of CDU and AfD in poll – SPD lagging far behind
SPDwelt.de96%match97¢-1%
Berlin: Left Party suddenly clearly ahead of CDU and AfD in election poll – SPD lagging far behind
AfDwelt.de91%match28¢+4%
AfD extends lead over CDU/CSU – SPD loses ground to the Greens
AfDNOTUS Reporter94%match28¢+4%
NEW from me in Berlin: • • In a few weeks, Germany’s far-right party — Alternative for Germany, better known as AfD — could become a governing party of a German state for the first time. The stakes go far beyond the one state — and likely beyond Europe. • •
CDUwelt.de95%match27¢+37%
Berlin: Election thriller – poll suddenly shows CDU narrowly ahead of the Left Party, glimmer of hope for the SPD
AfDNOTUS Reporter93%match28¢+4%
AfD Opens 20-Point Lead a Month Before Crucial State Elections •
SPDwelt.de96%match99¢-3%
Berlin election: "The SPD must be careful to avoid permanent changes at the top of the left-wing camp"
CDUwelt.de94%match75¢-16%
The Left Party is in the lead in Berlin – the CDU is not benefiting from the change of candidates.
AfDelonmusk92%match73¢-3%
BREAKING: Germany's Anti-Immigration party the AfD have topped a poll in liberal/left leaning BERLIN for the FIRST TIME EVER • • This is unprecedented • Remigration is inevitable
SPDwelt.de92%match97¢-1%
SPD falls behind the Greens – AfD maintains a clear lead over the CDU/CSU.
BSWbild.de92%match100¢
Sonntagsfrage: Knackt das BSW bald die 5 Prozent?
BSWbild.de91%match100¢
Sonntagsfrage: Knackt BSW bald die 5 Prozent?
SPDwelt.de96%match97¢-1%
A poll shows the AfD in the lead in Berlin for the first time – the SPD is far behind in fifth place.
AfDbild.de97%match79¢-10%
New poll: AfD now also leads in Berlin
SPDbild.de92%match99¢-3%
Debacle in poll for the SPD! Behind the Greens and the Left Party in the ZDF poll.
CDUwelt.de97%match18¢+106%
CDU gains significantly in poll after Wegner's resignation – Left Party clearly in first place in Berlin

What is this event about?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

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