Berlin State Election: 2nd Place

ResolvedOutcomes24as of

This hub tracks 24 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

CDU100%
AfD0%
SPD0%
FDP0%
FW0%
BSW0%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

Linkewelt.de93%match
Wahlen in Berlin: Wo die Linke 40 Prozent holt – Linksrutsch in den Bezirken
AfDalmayadeennews92%match0¢
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) continues its winning streak, while Merz's party suffers its worst defeat in history and remains outside parliament.
SPDspiegel.de93%match100¢
SPD in crisis: Election winner and loser put pressure on Bas and Klingbeil
SPDwelt.de97%match100¢
Berlin election: The divided capital – SPD with only one direct mandate
AfDRussian Media97%match98¢+2%
The Left won the elections to the Berlin House of Deputies, gaining 25.7% of the vote, Tagesschau reports. They are followed by the CDU, with 18.8% of the vote, the Alternative for Germany with 16.3%, the Greens (14.3%) and the SPD (12.1%). Thus, the ruling coalition of the CDU and SPD has lost its majority, the TV channel notes. In the elections in the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD won, with 38.2% of the vote. The CDU gained 4.9% of the vote and did not overcome the five percent barrier to enter the state parliament. RBC always at hand - download the app for iOS and Android RBC channel in "Max"
AfDKazinform98%match98¢+2%
The Left Party won the elections to the Berlin House of Deputies In the elections to the Berlin House of Deputies, which took place on September 20, the Left Party took first place, receiving 25.7% of the votes (an increase of 13.5 percentage points compared to the 2023 elections). This follows from official preliminary data released on the night of Monday, September 21. In second place is the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) with 18.8%, in third place is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 16.3% [in reply to: Elections in Germany: AfD gains a record 44% in Saxony-Anhalt About 1.7 million voters took part in the elections. The turnout, according to preliminary estimates, is significantly higher than in 2021. The leader of the AfD list, Ulrich Sigmund, called the results "historic". Party co-chair Alice Weidel announced a "clear mandate to form a government." U. Sigmund had previously stated that he was only prepared to lead a government with an absolute majority for his party and did not intend to join a coalition. ]
CDUUkrainian Media96%match94¢+6%
Merz's party has lost the third state election in 2 weeks: the CDU has been eliminated from the regional parliament for the first time ​ The worst result was in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union received only 4.9% compared to 13.3% in 2021 and did not overcome the five-percent threshold. This is the first time in history that the CDU has not entered the parliament of one of the German states, and the party's worst result in state elections since 1949, reports Tagesschau. ​ In the Berlin elections, which took place on the same day, the CDU received 18.8% compared to 28.2% in 2023 and came in second place after the Left Party. The current coalition of the CDU and the SPD has lost its majority. Two weeks earlier, support for the CDU in Saxony-Anhalt had fallen from 37.1% to 17.2%. The far-right Alternative for Germany won there with a record 43.8%. Thus, in the last three state elections, Merz's party lost between 8.4 and 19.9 percentage points of support compared to its previous result. Add News.LIVE as a reliable news source on Google
Linkedpa.com93%match99¢+1%
CDU fliegt im Nordosten aus Landtag – Linke siegt in Berlin
AfDnewsdig.tbs.co.jp97%match3¢-100%
In state parliamentary elections held in Berlin and the northeast of Germany, the far-right AfD made significant gains, making it the largest party in the northeast. Calls for resignation for Chancellor Merz, who suffered a crushing defeat, are also emerging.
CDUspiegel.de98%match89¢+12%
Berlin election 2026 - preliminary result: Left Party wins ahead of CDU, AfD in third place
AfDspiegel.de98%match97¢+3%
Berlin election 2026 - preliminary result: Left Party wins ahead of CDU, AfD in third place
CDUvesti.ru97%match91¢+10%
The Left party overtook the CDU to win the Berlin parliamentary elections.
Linkedpa.com94%match99¢+1%
CDU im Nordosten raus aus Landtag – Linke gewinnt in Berlin
CDUyna.co.kr93%match1¢-100%
Germany's Far-Right Party Wins Second Consecutive Local Election... Ruling CDU Sufferes Historic Crushing Defeat (Roundup 2)
AfDalarabiya96%match2¢-100%
Following the elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Friedrich Merz describes the results as disastrous and calls for an emergency meeting. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party advances and comes in second in Berlin.
CDUfaz.net97%match95¢+5%
Berlin election: Left Party wins state parliament election – CDU in second place
LinkeNewswire92%match98¢+2%
Far-Left Die Linke Surges to First Place in Berlin Regional Elections — Exit Poll
AfDvesti.ru92%match4¢-100%
The Left Party leads in the Berlin House of Representatives elections with 24.5%, while the AfD has 16%.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party makes strong gains in state elections and comes in second in Berlin. [in reply to: What does the rise of the AfD in Germany mean?! The election campaign of the party accused of extremism and closeness to Russia: - Normalization of German-Russian relations - Stopping immigration - Restarting the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines - Leaving the European Union.
CDUNews92%match90¢+11%
THE LEFT PARTY LEADING THE ELECTIONS TO THE BERLIN CHAMBER OF DEPUTY WITH 24.5% OF THE VOTES, BEHIND IT IS MERZ'S CDU PARTY WITH 20% OF THE VOTES, AND THIRD IS THE ADF WITH 16% - EXIT POLL
AfDReuters94%match8¢-100%
Far-Right AfD Seen at 16% in Berlin State Election - Exit Poll
SPDReuters94%match100¢
Centre-Left SPD Seen at 12% in Berlin State Election - Exit Poll
CDUspiegel.de94%match55¢+82%
Berlin election: How the CDU and the Left Party are fighting for the Red City Hall
CDUwelt.de97%match35¢+186%
Berlin election poll: CDU and Left Party neck and neck – SPD plummets, BSW at 5 percent
SPDwelt.de97%match96¢+4%
Berlin election poll: CDU and Left Party neck and neck – SPD plummets, BSW at 5 percent
BSWwelt.de96%match100¢
Berlin election poll: CDU and Left Party neck and neck – SPD plummets, BSW at 5 percent
AfDspiegel.de95%match69¢+45%
ZDF-Politbarometer: AfD und SPD laut Umfrage in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vorn, Linke und CDU in Berlin
SPDspiegel.de94%match97¢+3%
ZDF-Politbarometer: AfD und SPD laut Umfrage in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern vorn, Linke und CDU in Berlin
CDUwelt.de97%match38¢+163%
Poll: Left Party in first place in Berlin – CDU close behind, red-black coalition mathematically without a majority
CDUwelt.de97%match64¢-100%
Berlin election: Left Party overtakes CDU in poll – AfD clearly ahead of Greens and SPD

What is this event about?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)