Base FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Open10as of
Market pricing makes $500M the favorite at 56% across 10 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
In my mind the value is at least $10B. If it trades below then either (a) the market is not ready for bitcoin capital markets or (b) we failed at communicating to the users/market what we’ve built. • • I don’t think (a) is true because the market is ready and we’re seeing clear interest from institutions. And (b) is our responsibility and I’m personally flying to imp meetings with large institutional clients. • • Again, this is the floor. The potential for what we’ve built is in the $100B-$200B range on my view. I can share my modeling of the market and why I think this. Again, not financial advice and please do your own research.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Base's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."
The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.
The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price.
"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Base doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".