Bank of Russia decision in December?
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POLL-Analysts see Russian inflation at 7.2% in 2026
The Central Bank's key rate may only be cut by 0.25 percentage points, according to Anatoly Aksakov, candidate for chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets. According to him, a significant reduction is not to be expected. Inflationary pressure has begun to intensify in recent months, Aksakov noted. The Central Bank of Russia will take this factor into account when deciding on the key rate, he said. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
The Central Bank's key rate may only be cut by 0.25 percentage points, according to Anatoly Aksakov, candidate for chairman of the State Duma Committee on Financial Markets. According to him, a significant reduction is not to be expected. Inflationary pressure has begun to intensify in recent months, Aksakov noted. The Central Bank of Russia will take this factor into account when deciding on the key rate, he said. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Economists have identified the reasons for the rise in inflation expectations in September to 14.2% Imported goods have become more influential in the public's perception of inflation since 2022, according to economists at RANEPA. The role of clothing, knitwear, tobacco products, and printed materials has particularly increased amid rising import and logistics costs. Rising fuel prices, a weakening ruble, and ongoing geopolitical tensions prevented inflation expectations from continuing their August decline, according to Sofia Donetsk, chief economist at T-Investments. According to her, the indicator is influenced by triggers that are not directly dependent on Central Bank policy. High expectations could be an argument in favor of a Central Bank pause: a level of 13-15% encourages maintaining the rate at the next meeting, according to Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa-Bank. According to her assessment, a rate cut is unlikely in December either.
Economists have identified the reasons for the rise in inflation expectations in September to 14.2%. Imported goods have become more influential in the public's perception of inflation since 2022, according to economists at RANEPA. The role of clothing, knitwear, tobacco products, and printed materials has particularly increased amid rising import and logistics costs. Rising fuel prices, a weakening ruble, and ongoing geopolitical tensions prevented inflation expectations from continuing their August decline, according to Sofia Donetsk, chief economist at T-Investments. According to her, the indicator is influenced by triggers that are not directly dependent on the Central Bank's policy. High expectations could be an argument in favor of a pause by the Central Bank: a level of 13-15% encourages keeping the rate at the next meeting, says Natalya Orlova, Chief Economist at Alfa-Bank. According to her, a rate cut is unlikely in December either. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: Inflation expectations of Russians rose to 14.2% in September, by five percentage points, according to an inFOM survey commissioned by the Bank of Russia. Only the July figure for 2026 was higher than the September figure – 14.7%. The estimate of observed inflation rose to 15.1% (+0.8 percentage points). The Bank of Russia reported that inflation expectations of the population, businesses, and financial market participants in Russia remain elevated, despite mixed dynamics. This could hinder a sustainable slowdown in inflation. Annual inflation, according to the Central Bank's estimate as of September 7, was 6.3%. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
Economists have identified the reasons for the rise in inflation expectations in September to 14.2%. Imported goods have become more influential in the public's perception of inflation since 2022, according to economists at RANEPA. The role of clothing, knitwear, tobacco products, and printed materials has particularly increased amid rising import and logistics costs. Rising fuel prices, a weakening ruble, and ongoing geopolitical tensions prevented inflation expectations from continuing their August decline, according to Sofia Donetsk, chief economist at T-Investments. According to her, the indicator is influenced by triggers that are not directly dependent on the Central Bank's policy. High expectations could be an argument in favor of a pause by the Central Bank: a level of 13-15% encourages keeping the rate at the next meeting, says Natalya Orlova, Chief Economist at Alfa-Bank. According to her, a rate cut is unlikely in December either. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: Inflation expectations of Russians rose to 14.2% in September, by five percentage points, according to an inFOM survey commissioned by the Bank of Russia. Only the July figure for 2026 was higher than the September figure – 14.7%. The estimate of observed inflation rose to 15.1% (+0.8 percentage points). The Bank of Russia reported that inflation expectations of the population, businesses, and financial market participants in Russia remain elevated, despite mixed dynamics. This could hinder a sustainable slowdown in inflation. Annual inflation, according to the Central Bank's estimate as of September 7, was 6.3%. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the key rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of Russia, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Russia, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 18, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar (https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Russia resulting from its December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.