AR-02 House Election Winner

ResolvedOutcomes8as of

This hub tracks 8 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

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What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

French Hill (R)thehill.com96%match72¢+39%
Arkansas live results: 2026 House elections Arkansas voters on Tuesday pick their U.S. representatives for the next two years. In the solidly red Natural State, each of its four congressional districts is represented by a Republican. The four-member House delegation includes Reps. Rick Crawford, French Hill, Steve Womack and Bruce Westerman. All four incumbents are seeking reelection this year. Arkansas Democrats’…
Chris Jones (D)Axios Reporter93%match17¢-100%
NEW: DCCC adds 6 candidates to its "Red to Blue" program • • Chris Jones - #AR02 (Trump+16 in '24) • Dwayne Romero - #CO03 (Trump+10) • Eliott Rodriguez - #FL27 (Trump+15) • Teresa Benitez-Thompson - #NV02 (Trump+14) • Blake Gendebien - #NY21 (Trump+21) • Justin Pearson - #TN09 (Trump+21)
AM: • • REPUBLICANS SPEND GOBS OF CASH IN ARKANSAS • • TOM COTTON is outspending his opponent 65 to 1. He isn't in trouble, according to internal party data. COTTON and allies have spent $13.5 MILLION. Dems have spent $208K • • FRENCH HILL'S race is also attracting lots of cash. This is the least Republican seat in the state. He and allies have spent $1.5M compared to Dems $577K. • •

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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