Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
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Market pricing makes Shutdown & Democratic Party the favorite at 86% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
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House Republicans today took the responsible step of passing a clean, short-term continuing resolution to fund our government through the November elections. Sadly, and predictably, 204 House Democrats voted against this measure. Given that Democrats have already forced the two longest government shutdowns in American history this Congress, it’s clear they don’t care what kind of pain they inflict on the American people or the hundreds of thousands of federal workers who would be forced to work without pay. • • While time remains until the end of the fiscal year, Republicans are under no illusions about the Democrat Party’s intentions heading into a consequential midterm election. They apparently believe a painful government shutdown would help them politically. We hope they will come to their senses before the government shuts down, but if they don’t, then Democrats alone will own the chaos that results.
House Republicans today took the responsible step of passing a clean, short-term continuing resolution to fund our government through the November elections. Sadly, and predictably, 204 House Democrats voted against this measure. Given that Democrats have already forced the two longest government shutdowns in American history this Congress, it’s clear they don’t care what kind of pain they inflict on the American people or the hundreds of thousands of federal workers who would be forced to work without pay. • • While time remains until the end of the fiscal year, Republicans are under no illusions about the Democrat Party’s intentions heading into a consequential midterm election. They apparently believe a painful government shutdown would help them politically. We hope they will come to their senses before the government shuts down, but if they don’t, then Democrats alone will own the chaos that results.
DHS has been shut down now for over sixty days for one reason: Republicans have been so paralyzed by their own dysfunction that they cannot govern. • • Democrats are not the ones dragging this shutdown on—this all falls on the @SenateGOP and @HouseGOP, who are too busy fighting with each other.
DHS has been shut down now for over sixty days for one reason: Republicans have been so paralyzed by their own dysfunction that they cannot govern. • • Democrats are not the ones dragging this shutdown on—this all falls on the @SenateGOP and @HouseGOP, who are too busy fighting with each other.
The House Appropriations Committee hearing has ended after nearly two hours. There were no signs that lawmakers were closer to a deal to fully fund the Department of Homeland Security and end the 61-day shutdown. Republicans continued to blame Democrats for refusing to fund the department without new limits on immigration agents. Democrats said they would keep pushing for reforms and urged House Republicans to pass a bipartisan deal that would unlock funding for everything but immigration enforcement.
The House Appropriations Committee hearing has ended after nearly two hours. There were no signs that lawmakers were closer to a deal to fully fund the Department of Homeland Security and end the 61-day shutdown. Republicans continued to blame Democrats for refusing to fund the department without new limits on immigration agents. Democrats said they would keep pushing for reforms and urged House Republicans to pass a bipartisan deal that would unlock funding for everything but immigration enforcement.
Senate GOP vows to ‘go it alone’ on ICE funding as Dems double down on shutdown
Senate GOP vows to ‘go it alone’ on ICE funding as Dems double down on shutdown
TRUMP: LAWMAKERS GETTING FAIRLY CLOSE TO DEAL ON GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN
Internal GOP disagreements paralyze 2026 legislative agenda
TRUMP: GOVT SHUTDOWN COST U.S. 'AT LEAST 2 POINTS IN GDP'
TRUMP: GOVT SHUTDOWN COST U.S. 'AT LEAST 2 POINTS IN GDP'
Trump says govt shutdown slowed US growth by 'at least two points,' ahead of official figures
James Blair on the Democrat shutdown: "This is really just the Democrats grandstanding, and really what they're saying is, 'We are not going to enforce federal immigration law in this country'."
Fitch Ratings: US Government shutdown underscores polarisation amid high fiscal deficits.
Fitch Ratings: US Government shutdown underscores polarisation amid high fiscal deficits.
Another Democrat Government Shutdown Dramatically Hurts America’s National Security
Trump: This is a Democrat shutdown. This has nothing to do with Republicans. This is a Democrat shutdown. They're upset that the crime numbers are so good. They're very unhappy that there's a movement for getting voter ID.
Trump: This is a Democrat shutdown. This has nothing to do with Republicans. This is a Democrat shutdown. They're upset that the crime numbers are so good. They're very unhappy that there's a movement for getting voter ID.
Sen. Mullin on the Democrats' shutdown stunt: "This is nothing but political theater because what they're saying, they can't even do... They're shutting down thousands of workers for nothing but a talking point."
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election.
A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated.
The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber.
All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.