Andy Burnham out as UK PM

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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 5% across 2 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

6 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

December 31mirror.co.uk92%match93¢+2%
Live: Being Prime Minister 'intense in a good' way, says Andy Burnham
August 31mirror.co.uk92%match99¢+1%
Live: Being Prime Minister 'intense in a good' way, says Andy Burnham
December 31thetimes.com92%match93¢+2%
Live: Burnham: I will stick this out for as long as I'm prime minister
August 31thetimes.com91%match99¢+1%
Live: Burnham: I will stick this out for as long as I'm prime minister
December 31mirror.co.uk92%match7¢-29%
Live: Andy Burnham expected any moment
August 31mirror.co.uk91%match1¢-100%
Live: Andy Burnham expected any moment

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andy Burnham's departure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The departure will be considered to be announced when Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Burnham has ceased or will cease to hold the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives. If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify. If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Andy Burnham and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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